Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
6–0 · AP #5
vs
Ohio State
5–1 · AP #4
12:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)Bloomington, IN
Clear52°FNE 7 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:45 PM ET · National Weather Service
Bloomington · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear52°FNE 7 mphGusts 12 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
42%
Indiana win probability
Ohio State 58%
Ohio State by 2.9
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Indiana's case
Indiana's defense was in the 99th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Ohio State's offense was in the 85th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Ohio State's answer
Ohio State's defense was in the 100th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Indiana's offense was in the 99th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Indiana a 42% chance to win and predicts Ohio State by 2.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Fernando Mendoza · 92% of charted pass attempts
288 of 293 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 246 short · 42 deep · 5 not stated
The Indiana offense in 2025
QB · 16 games
273/379 · 72% season
Last game
Miami · Jan 19, 2026: 16/27, 186 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 16 games
Last game
Miami · Jan 19, 2026: 19 carries, 60 yds, 0 TD
WR · 15 games
Last game
Miami · Jan 19, 2026: 5 rec, 71 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 16 games in this window · 16 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando MendozaQB | 16 | 273 / 379 | 3,535 | 9.3 | 41 | 6 |
| Alberto MendozaQB | 6 | 18 / 24 | 286 | 11.9 | 5 | 1 |
| Grant WilsonQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian SayinQB | 14 | 301 / 391 | 3,610 | 9.2 | 32 | 8 |
| Lincoln KienholzQB | 4 | 11 / 14 | 139 | 9.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Tavien St. ClairQB | 1 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon InnissWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Indiana's line averages 307.0 lbs against Ohio State's 280.2 lbs front — an edge of 26.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana OLIndiana OL vs Ohio State DL | 307.0 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
| Ohio State OLOhio State OL vs Indiana DL | 309.2 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Indiana: solid line, circles · Ohio State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Jan 19
W 27–21
Play stats pending
Jan 9
W 56–22
Play stats pending
Jan 1
W 38–3
Play stats pending
Tino Sunseri
Co-offensive coordinator · career +35.3 SP+ offense
Keenan Bailey
Co-offensive coordinator · career +37.6 SP+ offense
Tim Walton
Co-defensive coordinator · career +7.7 SP+ defense
2025 · Indiana 13, Ohio State 10
Neutral site · Lucas Oil Stadium
2024 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 15
Ohio Stadium
2023 · Ohio State 23, Indiana 3
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2022 · Ohio State 56, Indiana 14
Ohio Stadium
2021 · Ohio State 54, Indiana 7
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2020 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 35
Ohio Stadium
2019 · Ohio State 51, Indiana 10
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2018 · Ohio State 49, Indiana 26
Ohio Stadium
2017 · Ohio State 49, Indiana 21
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2016 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 17
Ohio Stadium
2015 · Ohio State 34, Indiana 27
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2014 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 27
Ohio Stadium
2013 · Ohio State 42, Indiana 14
Ohio Stadium
2012 · Ohio State 52, Indiana 49
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2011 · Ohio State 34, Indiana 20
Ohio Stadium
2010 · Ohio State 38, Indiana 10
Ohio Stadium
2009 · Ohio State 33, Indiana 14
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2006 · Ohio State 44, Indiana 3
Ohio Stadium
2005 · Ohio State 41, Indiana 10
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2004 · Ohio State 30, Indiana 7
Ohio Stadium
2003 · Ohio State 35, Indiana 6
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
2002 · Ohio State 45, Indiana 17
Ohio Stadium
2001 · Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Evidence window: 2025 full season