Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Arkansas
2–4
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFirstBank StadiumNashville, TN
Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service
Nashville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear59°FNE 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
68%
Vanderbilt win probability
Arkansas 32%
Vanderbilt by 6.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Vanderbilt's case
Vanderbilt's offense was in the 100th percentile for per play last season. Arkansas's defense was in the 9th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Arkansas's answer
Arkansas's offense was in the 87th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play last season. Vanderbilt's defense was in the 27th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Vanderbilt a 68% chance to win and predicts Vanderbilt by 6.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Diego Pavia · 94% of charted pass attempts
332 of 340 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 287 short · 45 deep · 8 not stated
The Vanderbilt offense in 2025
QB · 13 games
267/378 · 71% season
Last game
Iowa · Dec 31, 2025: 25/38, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
QB · 13 games
Last game
Iowa · Dec 31, 2025: 15 carries, 36 yds, 1 TD
TE · 12 games
Last game
Tennessee · Nov 29, 2025: 5 rec, 64 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego PaviaQB | 13 | 267 / 378 | 3,539 | 9.4 | 29 | 8 |
| Blaze BerlowitzQB | 6 | 9 / 17 | 131 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Whit MuschampQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew DickeyQB | 1 | 1 / 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylen GreenQB | 12 | 198 / 326 | 2,714 | 8.3 | 19 | 11 |
| KJ JacksonQB | 5 | 33 / 54 | 441 | 8.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Trever JacksonQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Vanderbilt's line averages 312.8 lbs against Arkansas's 282.8 lbs front — an edge of 30.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt OLVanderbilt OL vs Arkansas DL | 312.8 lbs | 282.8 lbs |
| Arkansas OLArkansas OL vs Vanderbilt DL | 311.0 lbs | 279.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Vanderbilt: solid line, circles · Arkansas: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 31
L 27–34
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 67 recorded plays
W 45–24
57%
Success rate
0.59
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 56 recorded plays
W 45–17
54%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Clark Lea
career −2.3 SP+ overall
Steve Gregory
career +23.4 SP+ defense
Photo: Dirk Hansen from San Diego, CA. Cropped by User:Blueag9., CC BY 2.0
Ryan Silverfield
First season as Arkansas's head coach · career +5.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Inside Arkansas, CC BY 4.0
Tim Cramsey
career +32.2 SP+ offense
Deron Wilson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.7 SP+ defense
Ron Roberts
career +25.7 SP+ defense
2018 · Vanderbilt 45, Arkansas 31
Razorback Stadium
2011 · Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 28
FirstBank Stadium
2010 · Arkansas 49, Vanderbilt 14
Razorback Stadium
2006 · Arkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
FirstBank Stadium
2005 · Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 24
Razorback Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season