Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–2
vs
Kentucky
5–1 · AP #15
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)Norman, OK
Clear63°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Norman · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear63°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
72%
Oklahoma win probability
Kentucky 28%
Oklahoma by 8.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Oklahoma's case
Oklahoma's defense was in the 98th percentile for allowed per play last season. Kentucky's offense was in the 19th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Kentucky's answer
Kentucky's defense was in the 40th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play last season. Oklahoma's offense was in the 25th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Oklahoma a 72% chance to win and predicts Oklahoma by 8.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
John Mateer · 91% of charted pass attempts
346 of 355 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 298 short · 48 deep · 9 not stated
The Oklahoma offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
247/397 · 62% season
Last game
Alabama · Dec 19, 2025: 26/41, 307 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
QB · 12 games
Last game
Alabama · Dec 19, 2025: 19 carries, 15 yds, 1 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Alabama · Dec 19, 2025: 2 rec, 17 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerQB | 12 | 247 / 397 | 2,885 | 7.3 | 14 | 11 |
| Michael Hawkins Jr.QB | 2 | 15 / 27 | 167 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Whitt NewbauerQB | 2 | 2 / 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| JaVonnie GibsonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter BoleyQB | 11 | 198 / 301 | 2,160 | 7.2 | 15 | 12 |
| Zach CalzadaQB | 3 | 28 / 58 | 238 | 4.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brennen WardQB | 1 | 3 / 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick LawWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Oklahoma's line averages 318.6 lbs against Kentucky's 285.8 lbs front — an edge of 32.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma OLOklahoma OL vs Kentucky DL | 318.6 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| Kentucky OLKentucky OL vs Oklahoma DL | 320.2 lbs | 277.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Oklahoma: solid line, circles · Kentucky: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 19
L 24–34
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 69 recorded plays
W 17–13
30%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 65 recorded plays
W 17–6
29%
Success rate
−0.04
PPA / play
Ben Arbuckle
career +31.6 SP+ offense
Will Stein
First season as Kentucky's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Joe Sloan
career +36.8 SP+ offense
Jay Bateman
career +30.5 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2025 full season
