Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Kent State
2–4
7:00 PM ETRaymond James StadiumTampa, FL
Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 13 hours ago · National Weather Service
Tampa · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
93%
South Florida win probability
Kent State 7%
South Florida by 20.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · South Florida's case
South Florida's offense was in the 97th percentile for points per game last season. Kent State's defense was in the 6th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Kent State's answer
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Kent State unit ranked well below the South Florida unit it faced.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives South Florida a 93% chance to win and predicts South Florida by 20.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Byrum Brown · 94% of charted pass attempts
334 of 341 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 281 short · 53 deep · 7 not stated
The South Florida offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
226/341 · 66% season
Last game
Rice · Nov 29, 2025: 16/24, 275 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
QB · 12 games
Last game
Rice · Nov 29, 2025: 15 carries, 104 yds, 1 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Rice · Nov 29, 2025: 6 rec, 125 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrum BrownQB | 12 | 226 / 341 | 3,158 | 9.3 | 28 | 7 |
| Gaston MooreQB | 7 | 34 / 48 | 290 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Locklan HewlettQB | 2 | 7 / 12 | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase LeonP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian NeptuneWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nykahi DavenportRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dru DeshieldsQB | 11 | 136 / 240 | 2,030 | 8.5 | 18 | 3 |
| CJ MontesQB | 2 | 10 / 19 | 140 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Devin KargmanQB | 2 | 8 / 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan GoodQB | 2 | 5 / 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Deante RuffinQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Realyst ClarkWR | 2 | 2 / 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Sebastian BrownWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
7 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
South Florida's line averages 307.4 lbs against Kent State's 257.1 lbs front — an edge of 50.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| South Florida OLSouth Florida OL vs Kent State DL | 307.4 lbs | 257.1 lbs |
| Kent State OLKent State OL vs South Florida DL | 297.1 lbs | 278.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
South Florida: solid line, circles · Kent State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 17
L 10–24
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 42 recorded plays
W 52–3
57%
Success rate
0.69
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 49 recorded plays
W 48–18
55%
Success rate
0.42
PPA / play
Brian Hartline
First season as South Florida's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Josh Aldridge
career +24.2 SP+ defense
Mark Carney
career −19.3 SP+ overall
Clay Patterson
career +14.8 SP+ offense
Cherokee Valeria
career +34.9 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2025 full season
