Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–1 · AP #13
at
Ole Miss
4–1 · AP #9
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTVaught-Hemingway StadiumOxford, MS
Clear67°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 3:05 PM CT · National Weather Service
Oxford · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear67°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
48%
Missouri win probability
Ole Miss 52%
Ole Miss by 0.7
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Missouri's case
Missouri's offense was in the 71st percentile for per play last season. Ole Miss's defense was in the 61st percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Ole Miss's answer
Ole Miss's offense was in the 93rd percentile for points per game last season. Missouri's defense was in the 87th percentile for points allowed per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Missouri a 48% chance to win and predicts Ole Miss by 0.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Beau Pribula · 80% of charted pass attempts
261 of 270 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 240 short · 21 deep · 9 not stated
The Missouri offense in 2025
QB · 10 games
182/270 · 67% season
Last game
Arkansas · Nov 29, 2025: 4/7, 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Virginia · Dec 27, 2025: 15 carries, 89 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Virginia · Dec 27, 2025: 3 rec, 17 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau PribulaQB | 10 | 182 / 270 | 1,946 | 7.2 | 11 | 9 |
| Matt ZollersQB | 7 | 47 / 88 | 503 | 5.7 | 4 | 2 |
| Brett BrownQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy LockQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 15 games in this window · 15 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad ChamblissQB | 14 | 294 / 445 | 3,937 | 8.8 | 22 | 3 |
| Austin SimmonsQB | 6 | 45 / 75 | 744 | 9.9 | 4 | 5 |
| AJ MaddoxQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Missouri's line averages 309.3 lbs against Ole Miss's 284.1 lbs front — an edge of 25.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri OLMissouri OL vs Ole Miss DL | 309.3 lbs | 284.1 lbs |
| Ole Miss OLOle Miss OL vs Missouri DL | 310.0 lbs | 274.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Missouri: solid line, circles · Ole Miss: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
L 7–13
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 67 recorded plays
W 31–17
46%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 72 recorded plays
L 6–17
32%
Success rate
−0.06
PPA / play
Eli Drinkwitz
career +9.9 SP+ overall
Corey Batoon
career +21.1 SP+ defense
Pete Golding
no career rating on file
Cody Woodiel
Co-offensive coordinator · career +34.0 SP+ offense
John David Baker
career +34.0 SP+ offense
Bryan Brown
career +24.1 SP+ defense
Marcus Woodson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +24.1 SP+ defense
2019 · Missouri 38, Ole Miss 27
Memorial Stadium
2013 · Missouri 24, Ole Miss 10
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
2007 · Missouri 38, Ole Miss 25
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
2006 · Missouri 34, Ole Miss 7
Memorial Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season