Saturday, October 17

Tennessee

5–1 · AP #14

Alabama

5–1 · AP #6

3:30 PM ETNeyland StadiumKnoxville, TN

Weather

Clear61°FNE 14 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:26 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Knoxville · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear61°FNE 14 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

20%

Tennessee win probability

Alabama 80%

Alabama by 11.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Tennessee's case

Tennessee's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Tennessee's offense was in the 95th percentile for per play last season. Alabama's defense was in the 80th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Alabama's answer

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in

Alabama's offense was in the 59th percentile for success rate last season. Tennessee's defense was in the 18th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Tennessee a 20% chance to win and predicts Alabama by 11.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee offense: 95th
Alabama defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Tennessee offensive PPA per play: 0.3295th percentile · #8 nationally
Alabama PPA allowed per play: 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
Tennessee success rate: 50%98th percentile · #4 nationally
Alabama success rate allowed: 37%84th percentile · #22 nationally
Tennessee points per game: 39.896th percentile · #6 nationally
Alabama per game: 19.286th percentile · #20 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Tennessee offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 49.6%

Alabama defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 35.2%

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama offense: 71st
Tennessee defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Alabama offensive PPA per play: 0.2171st percentile · #34 nationally
Tennessee PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Alabama success rate: 43%59th percentile · #56 nationally
Tennessee success rate allowed: 45%18th percentile · #112 nationally
Alabama points per game: 29.564th percentile · #50 nationally
Tennessee points allowed per game: 28.832nd percentile · #92 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Alabama offense · 2025 season · 6 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 42.5%

Tennessee defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 46.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Joey Aguilar · 92% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 163 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.2; over 162 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 66%; over 162 attempts with a result

377 of 387 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 333 short · 44 deep · 10 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.6 over 108 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Tennessee offense in 2025

Joey Aguilar

QB · 13 games

272/404 · 67% season

Passing yards: 3,565
Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 10

Last game

Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 14/18, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

DeSean Bishop

RB · 13 games

Carries: 182
Rushing yards: 1,076
Touchdowns: 16

Last game

Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 19 carries, 93 yds, 2 TD

Braylon Staley

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 68
Receiving yards: 837
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Illinois · Dec 30, 2025: 4 rec, 31 yds, 0 TD

Tennessee player tables

Who is producing

Tennessee player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Tennessee — Passing production
Player
Joey AguilarQB	13	272 / 404	3,565	8.8	24	10
Jake MerklingerQB	3	13 / 24	173	7.2	2	0
George MacIntyreQB	2	7 / 9	69	7.7	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Alabama player tables

Who is producing

Alabama player production

2025 evidence · 15 games in this window · 15 with recorded rows in this view

Alabama — Passing production
Player
Ty SimpsonQB	15	305 / 473	3,567	7.5	28	5
Austin MackQB	4	24 / 32	228	7.1	2	0
Keelon RussellQB	2	11 / 15	143	9.5	2	0
Germie BernardWR	2	2 / 2	15	7.5	0	0
Daniel HillRB	1	1 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Tennessee's line averages 317.9 lbs against Alabama's 292.1 lbs front — an edge of 25.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Tennessee OLTennessee OL vs Alabama DL	317.9 lbs	292.1 lbs
Alabama OLAlabama OL vs Tennessee DL	309.5 lbs	272.1 lbs

Tennessee
Alabama

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Tennessee

Points per game: 39.8#6 nationally · 96th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 28.8#92 nationally · 32nd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 19th percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 110 of 110 with a class year

Alabama

Points per game: 29.5#50 nationally · 64th percentile · 15 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 15 games
Returning production: 43% of 2024 PPA returns · 40th percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Recruiting

Tennessee

2025 signing class · #11 nationally: 93rd percentile · 277.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 1.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #16 nationally: 89th percentile · 866.6

Alabama

2025 signing class · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 298.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.22 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 993.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Tennessee: solid line, circles · Alabama: dashed line, squares

Tennessee

Offense · 2025: 39.3 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 25.4 · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 277.9 pts · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Alabama

Offense · SP+ 2025: 32.2 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 16.1 · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.3 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 298.4 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 43% returning · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Tennessee's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 30
vs Illinois · neutral site
L 28–30
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 77 recorded plays
vs Vanderbilt
L 24–45
44%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 66 recorded plays
at Florida
W 31–11
65%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Tennessee

Head coach: Josh Heupel
career +18.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Joey Halzle
career +36.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Full Disclosure+, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Anthony Poindexter
Co-defensive coordinator · career +22.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Thomsonmg2000, CC0; Jim Knowles
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Alabama

Head coach: Kalen DeBoer
career +12.9 SP+ overall
Photo: The University of Alabama, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Ryan Grubb
career +34.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Kane Wommack
career +21.6 SP+ defense; Maurice Linguist
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Alabama leads 19–7 since 2000

2025 · Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2024 · Tennessee 24, Alabama 17
Neyland Stadium
2023 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2022 · Tennessee 52, Alabama 49
Neyland Stadium
2021 · Alabama 52, Tennessee 24
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2020 · Alabama 48, Tennessee 17
Neyland Stadium
2019 · Alabama 35, Tennessee 13
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2018 · Alabama 58, Tennessee 21
Neyland Stadium
2017 · Alabama 45, Tennessee 7
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2016 · Alabama 49, Tennessee 10
Neyland Stadium
2015 · Alabama 19, Tennessee 14
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2014 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
Neyland Stadium
2013 · Alabama 45, Tennessee 10
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2012 · Alabama 44, Tennessee 13
Neyland Stadium
2011 · Alabama 37, Tennessee 6
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2010 · Alabama 41, Tennessee 10
Neyland Stadium
2009 · Alabama 12, Tennessee 10
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2008 · Alabama 29, Tennessee 9
Neyland Stadium
2007 · Alabama 41, Tennessee 17
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2006 · Tennessee 16, Alabama 13
Neyland Stadium
2005 · Alabama 6, Tennessee 3
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2004 · Tennessee 17, Alabama 13
Neyland Stadium
2003 · Tennessee 51, Alabama 43
Bryant-Denny Stadium
2002 · Alabama 34, Tennessee 14
Neyland Stadium
2001 · Tennessee 35, Alabama 24
2000 · Tennessee 20, Alabama 10

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Tennessee: 13 games
Alabama: 15 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Tennessee's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Alabama defense · 2025 season · 5 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama offense · 2025 season · 6 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Tennessee defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Joey Aguilar

DeSean Bishop

Braylon Staley

Tennessee player production

Alabama player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Tennessee

Alabama

Recruiting

Tennessee

Alabama

Season percentile profiles

Tennessee

Alabama

Tennessee's recent games

vs Illinois · neutral site

vs Vanderbilt

at Florida

The coaching staff

Tennessee

Alabama

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Alabama's offense leads its matchup in