Saturday, October 17

Auburn

3–2

Georgia

6–0 · AP #1

3:30 PM ETSanford StadiumAthens, GA

Weather

Clear68°FNE 9 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 2:26 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Athens · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear68°FNE 9 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Auburn win probability

Georgia 95%

Georgia by 23.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Georgia's case

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in

Georgia's defense was in the 93rd percentile for points allowed per game last season. Auburn's offense was in the 46th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Auburn's answer

Auburn has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Georgia's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Auburn leans on its top passer

Auburn's leading passer threw 60% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense: 48th
Georgia defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

Auburn offensive per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Georgia PPA allowed per play: 0.0973rd percentile · #34 nationally
Auburn: 44%63rd percentile · #51 nationally
Georgia success rate allowed: 39%73rd percentile · #37 nationally
Auburn points per game: 26.846th percentile · #74 nationally
Georgia points allowed per game: 17.693rd percentile · #10 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Auburn offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 45.0%

Georgia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.15
Rush success allowed: 37.1%

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense: 80th
Auburn defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

Georgia offensive PPA per play: 0.2480th percentile · #26 nationally
Auburn PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
Georgia success rate: 47%87th percentile · #18 nationally
Auburn success rate allowed: 37%85th percentile · #21 nationally
Georgia points per game: 32.180th percentile · #28 nationally
Auburn points allowed per game: 20.776th percentile · #34 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Georgia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 47.8%

Auburn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 36.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jackson Arnold · 60% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 90 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.1; over 90 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 71%; over 90 attempts with a result

213 of 215 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 191 short · 22 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Auburn offense in 2025

Jackson Arnold

QB · 10 games

136/215 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,309
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Mercer · Nov 22, 2025: 3/5, 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Jeremiah Cobb

RB · 12 games

Carries: 175
Rushing yards: 969
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Alabama · Nov 29, 2025: 10 carries, 33 yds, 1 TD

Eric Singleton Jr.

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 58
Receiving yards: 534
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Alabama · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 26 yds, 0 TD

Auburn player tables

Who is producing

Auburn player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Auburn — Passing production
Player
Jackson ArnoldQB	10	136 / 215	1,309	6.1	6	2
Ashton DanielsQB	4	68 / 119	797	6.7	3	2
Deuce KnightQB	2	17 / 25	259	10.4	2	0
Eric Singleton Jr.WR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Georgia player tables

Who is producing

Georgia player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Georgia — Passing production
Player
Gunner StocktonQB	14	269 / 386	2,894	7.5	24	5
Ryan PuglisiQB	6	16 / 27	161	6.0	1	2
Dillon BellWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Landon RoldanWR	1	1 / 1	16	16.0	0	0
Ryan MontgomeryQB	1	1 / 1	12	12.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Auburn's line averages 315.2 lbs against Georgia's 297.4 lbs front — an edge of 17.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Auburn OLAuburn OL vs Georgia DL	315.2 lbs	297.4 lbs
Georgia OLGeorgia OL vs Auburn DL	315.5 lbs	286.3 lbs

Auburn
Georgia

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Auburn

Points per game: 26.8#74 nationally · 46th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 20.7#34 nationally · 76th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 17th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Georgia

Points per game: 32.1#28 nationally · 80th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 17.6#10 nationally · 93rd percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 37% of 2024 PPA returns · 35th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 132 of 132 with a class year

Recruiting

Auburn

2025 signing class · #8 nationally: 95th percentile · 286.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 1.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 891.8

Georgia

2025 signing class · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 304.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 2.25 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 1003.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Auburn: solid line, circles · Georgia: dashed line, squares

Auburn

Offense · 2025: 28.3 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.4 · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 286.9 pts · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Georgia

Offense · SP+ 2025: 37.0 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 14.8 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.9 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 304.6 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 37% returning · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Auburn's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 77 recorded plays
vs Alabama
L 20–27
39%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 36 recorded plays
vs Mercer
vs FCS
W 62–17
61%
Success rate
0.91
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 82 recorded plays
at Vanderbilt
L 38–45
50%
Success rate
0.41
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Auburn

Head coach: Alex Golesh
First season as Auburn's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Joel Gordon
career +33.3 SP+ offense; Kodi Burns
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.3 SP+ offense
Photo: Obama White House Archives, Public domain
Defensive coordinator: D. J. Durkin
career +23.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0; Tim Banks
Co-defensive coordinator · career +23.9 SP+ defense

Georgia

Head coach: Kirby Smart
career +26.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Mike Bobo
career +40.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Glenn Schumann
career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: TarheelBornBred, CC0; Travaris Robinson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0

Head-to-head

Georgia leads 20–7 since 2000

2025 · Georgia 20, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2024 · Georgia 31, Auburn 13
Sanford Stadium
2023 · Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2022 · Georgia 42, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2021 · Georgia 34, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2020 · Georgia 27, Auburn 6
Sanford Stadium
2019 · Georgia 21, Auburn 14
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2018 · Georgia 27, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2017 · Georgia 28, Auburn 7
Neutral site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
2017 · Auburn 40, Georgia 17
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2016 · Georgia 13, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2015 · Georgia 20, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2014 · Georgia 34, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2013 · Auburn 43, Georgia 38
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2012 · Georgia 38, Auburn 0
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2011 · Georgia 45, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2010 · Auburn 49, Georgia 31
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2009 · Georgia 31, Auburn 24
Sanford Stadium
2008 · Georgia 17, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2007 · Georgia 45, Auburn 20
Sanford Stadium
2006 · Georgia 37, Auburn 15
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2005 · Auburn 31, Georgia 30
Sanford Stadium
2004 · Auburn 24, Georgia 6
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2003 · Georgia 26, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2002 · Georgia 24, Auburn 21
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2001 · Auburn 24, Georgia 17
Sanford Stadium
2000 · Auburn 29, Georgia 26

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Auburn: 12 games
Georgia: 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Auburn has no clear answer on this matchup

Auburn leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Georgia defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Auburn defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Jackson Arnold

Jeremiah Cobb

Eric Singleton Jr.

Auburn player production

Georgia player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Auburn

Georgia

Recruiting

Auburn

Georgia

Season percentile profiles

Auburn

Georgia

Auburn's recent games

vs Alabama

vs Mercer

at Vanderbilt

The coaching staff

Auburn

Georgia

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in