Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–4
vs
Northwestern
4–1 · AP #25
12:00 PM ETSpartan StadiumEast Lansing, MI
Clear49°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 3:03 PM ET · National Weather Service
East Lansing · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear49°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
27%
Michigan State win probability
Northwestern 73%
Northwestern by 8.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Michigan State's case
Michigan State's offense was in the 47th percentile for success rate last season. Northwestern's defense was in the 10th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers02 · Northwestern's answer
Northwestern's offense was in the 56th percentile for success rate last season. Michigan State's defense was in the 19th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Michigan State's leading passer threw 54% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Aidan Chiles · 54% of charted pass attempts
201 of 204 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 166 short · 35 deep · 3 not stated
The Michigan State offense in 2025
QB · 8 games
128/203 · 63% season
Last game
Michigan · Oct 25, 2025: 14/28, 130 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 9 games
Last game
Penn State · Nov 15, 2025: 8 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Maryland · Nov 29, 2025: 7 rec, 85 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ChilesQB | 8 | 128 / 203 | 1,392 | 6.9 | 10 | 3 |
| Alessio MilivojevicQB | 9 | 111 / 173 | 1,267 | 7.3 | 10 | 3 |
| Omari KellyWR | 1 | 1 / 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston StoneQB | 13 | 222 / 370 | 2,400 | 6.5 | 17 | 12 |
| Ryan BoeQB | 3 | 2 / 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | 1 |
| Frank Covey IVWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Michigan State's line averages 305.1 lbs against Northwestern's 273.9 lbs front — an edge of 31.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State OLMichigan State OL vs Northwestern DL | 305.1 lbs | 273.9 lbs |
| Northwestern OLNorthwestern OL vs Michigan State DL | 305.4 lbs | 269.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Michigan State: solid line, circles · Northwestern: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 71 recorded plays
W 38–28
52%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 71 recorded plays
L 17–20
39%
Success rate
−0.01
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 50 recorded plays
L 10–28
34%
Success rate
−0.10
PPA / play
Pat Fitzgerald
First season as Michigan State's head coach · career +0.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Joe Rossi
career +23.2 SP+ defense
Tim McGarigle
career +22.1 SP+ defense
2021 · Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21
Ryan Field
2020 · Michigan State 29, Northwestern 20
Spartan Stadium
2019 · Michigan State 31, Northwestern 10
Ryan Field
2018 · Northwestern 29, Michigan State 19
Spartan Stadium
2017 · Northwestern 39, Michigan State 31
Ryan Field
2016 · Northwestern 54, Michigan State 40
Spartan Stadium
2013 · Michigan State 30, Northwestern 6
Ryan Field
2012 · Northwestern 23, Michigan State 20
Spartan Stadium
2011 · Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17
Ryan Field
2010 · Michigan State 35, Northwestern 27
Ryan Field
2009 · Michigan State 24, Northwestern 14
Spartan Stadium
2008 · Michigan State 37, Northwestern 20
Ryan Field
2007 · Northwestern 48, Michigan State 41
Spartan Stadium
2006 · Michigan State 41, Northwestern 38
Ryan Field
2005 · Northwestern 49, Michigan State 14
Spartan Stadium
2002 · Michigan State 39, Northwestern 24
Spartan Stadium
2001 · Northwestern 27, Michigan State 26
Ryan Field
2000 · Northwestern 37, Michigan State 17
Evidence window: 2025 full season