Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
6–0
vs
Georgia State
4–1
12:00 PM ETBridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service
Harrisonburg · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
79%
James Madison win probability
Georgia State 21%
James Madison by 11.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · James Madison's case
James Madison's offense was in the 94th percentile for points per game last season. Georgia State's defense was in the 1st percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Georgia State's answer
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Georgia State unit ranked well below the James Madison unit it faced.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 26 mph at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Alonza Barnett III · 95% of charted pass attempts
290 of 296 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 247 short · 43 deep · 6 not stated
The James Madison offense in 2025
QB · 14 games
216/370 · 58% season
Last game
Oregon · Dec 20, 2025: 23/48, 273 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 14 games
Last game
Oregon · Dec 20, 2025: 17 carries, 110 yds, 0 TD
RB · 12 games
Last game
Oregon · Dec 20, 2025: 3 rec, 18 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alonza BarnettQB | 14 | 216 / 370 | 2,806 | 7.6 | 23 | 8 |
| Matthew SlukaQB | 4 | 8 / 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 3 | 2 |
| JC EvansQB | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah AlstonWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick DeGennaroWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ FinleyQB | 7 | 127 / 201 | 1,244 | 6.2 | 6 | 7 |
| Cameran BrownQB | 10 | 119 / 184 | 1,259 | 6.8 | 13 | 1 |
| Christian VeilleuxQB | 3 | 41 / 86 | 513 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 |
| DJ Murray Jr.RB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
James Madison's line averages 309.2 lbs against Georgia State's 282.5 lbs front — an edge of 26.7 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| James Madison OLJames Madison OL vs Georgia State DL | 309.2 lbs | 282.5 lbs |
| Georgia State OLGeorgia State OL vs James Madison DL | 310.3 lbs | 274.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
James Madison: solid line, circles · Georgia State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 20
L 34–51
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 69 recorded plays
W 31–14
38%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 58 recorded plays
W 59–10
57%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Cam Aiken
no career rating on file
Robert Bala
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Dell McGee
career −21.2 SP+ overall
Cam Clark
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
John Haneline
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
2025 · James Madison 14, Georgia State 7
Center Parc Stadium
2024 · James Madison 38, Georgia State 7
Bridgeforth Stadium
2023 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 14
Center Parc Stadium
2022 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 40
Bridgeforth Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season