01 · Penn State's case
Penn State's offense leads its matchup in
Penn State's offense was in the 82nd percentile for success rate last season. Michigan's defense was in the 49th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Penn State
3–3
at
Michigan
3–2
3:30 PM ETMichigan StadiumAnn Arbor, MI
Weather
Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 3:49 PM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Ann Arbor · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
46%
Penn State win probability
Michigan 54%
Michigan by 1.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Michigan's answer
Michigan's offense leads its matchup in success rate
Michigan's offense was in the 76th percentile for success rate last season. Penn State's defense was in the 57th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Penn State leans on its top passer
Penn State's leading passer threw 52% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Penn State has the ball
- Penn State offense
- 78th
- Michigan defense
- 61st
Show the underlying numbers
- Penn State offensive per play
- 0.2378th percentile · #29 nationally
- Michigan PPA allowed per play
- 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
- Penn State success rate
- 46%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
- Michigan success rate allowed
- 42%49th percentile · #70 nationally
- Penn State points per game
- 31.076th percentile · #34 nationally
- Michigan per game
- 20.479th percentile · #29 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Penn State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.23
- Rush success
- 46.8%
Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.12
- Rush success allowed
- 42.0%
When Michigan has the ball
- Michigan offense
- 65th
- Penn State defense
- 67th
Show the underlying numbers
- Michigan offensive PPA per play
- 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
- Penn State PPA allowed per play
- 0.1067th percentile · #39 nationally
- Michigan success rate
- 45%76th percentile · #33 nationally
- Penn State success rate allowed
- 41%57th percentile · #59 nationally
- Michigan points per game
- 27.550th percentile · #69 nationally
- Penn State points allowed per game
- 20.576th percentile · #31 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.05
- Rush success
- 50.7%
Penn State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.22
- Rush success allowed
- 46.3%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Drew Allar · 52% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 42%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 65 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 6.1
- over 65 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 60%
- over 65 attempts with a result
156 of 159 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 144 short · 12 deep · 3 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Penn State offense in 2025
Drew Allar
QB · 6 games
103/159 · 65% season
- Passing yards
- 1,100
- Touchdowns
- 8
- Interceptions
- 3
Last game
Northwestern · Oct 11, 2025: 13/20, 137 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
Kaytron Allen
RB · 12 games
- Carries
- 210
- Rushing yards
- 1,303
- Touchdowns
- 15
Last game
Rutgers · Nov 29, 2025: 22 carries, 226 yds, 1 TD
Trebor Pena
WR · 13 games
- Receptions
- 49
- Receiving yards
- 552
- Touchdowns
- 2
Last game
Clemson · Dec 27, 2025: 5 rec, 100 yds, 1 TD
Penn State player tables
Who is producing
Penn State player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan GrunkemeyerQB | 9 | 123 / 178 | 1,339 | 7.5 | 8 | 4 |
| Drew AllarQB | 6 | 103 / 159 | 1,100 | 6.9 | 8 | 3 |
| Liam CliffordWR | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Michigan player tables
Who is producing
Michigan player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce UnderwoodQB | 13 | 202 / 335 | 2,428 | 7.2 | 11 | 9 |
| Jadyn DavisQB | 1 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Semaj MorganWR | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donaven McCulleyWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Penn State's line averages 310.7 lbs against Michigan's 277.2 lbs front — an edge of 33.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State OLPenn State OL vs Michigan DL | 310.7 lbs | 277.2 lbs |
| Michigan OLMichigan OL vs Penn State DL | 307.7 lbs | 272.9 lbs |
- Penn State
- Michigan
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Penn State
- Points per game
- 31.0#34 nationally · 76th percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 20.5#31 nationally · 76th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 56% of 2024 PPA returns · 57th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 36% · 127 of 127 with a class year
Michigan
- Points per game
- 27.5#69 nationally · 50th percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 20.4#29 nationally · 79th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 40% of 2024 PPA returns · 35th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 57% · 119 of 119 with a class year
Recruiting
Penn State
- 2025 signing class · #15 nationally
- 90th percentile · 255.4 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #15 nationally
- 90th percentile · 1.43 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #10 nationally
- 93rd percentile · 910.4
Michigan
- 2025 signing class · #6 nationally
- 96th percentile · 290.9 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #11 nationally
- 93rd percentile · 1.54 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #11 nationally
- 92nd percentile · 907.2
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Penn State Offense · SP+ 2025: 35.1, 88th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Michigan Offense · SP+ 2025: 30.9, 64th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Penn State Defense · SP+ 2025: 18.8, 84th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Michigan Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.0, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Penn State Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.8, 96th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4, 15th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Penn State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 255.4 pts, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Michigan Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 290.9 pts, 96th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Penn State Experience · returning production 2025: 56% returning, 57th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Michigan Experience · returning production 2025: 40% returning, 35th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Penn State: solid line, circles · Michigan: dashed line, squares
Penn State
- Offense · 2025
- 35.1 · 88th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 18.8 · 84th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 1.8 · 96th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 255.4 pts · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 56% returning · 57th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Michigan
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 30.9 · 64th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 17.0 · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −1.4 · 15th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 290.9 pts · 96th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 40% returning · 35th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Penn State's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
vs Clemson · neutral site
W 22–10
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 54 recorded plays
at Rutgers
W 40–36
54%
Success rate
0.46
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 47 recorded plays
vs Nebraska
W 37–10
60%
Success rate
0.75
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Penn State
- Head coach
Matt Campbell
First season as Penn State's head coach · career +7.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
- Offensive coordinator
Taylor Mouser
career +29.5 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Michigan
- Head coach
Kyle Whittingham
First season as Michigan's head coach · career +12.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
Jay Hill
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Head-to-head
Michigan leads 13–7 since 2000
2023 · Michigan 24, Penn State 15
Beaver Stadium
2022 · Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Michigan Stadium
2021 · Michigan 21, Penn State 17
Beaver Stadium
2020 · Penn State 27, Michigan 17
Michigan Stadium
2019 · Penn State 28, Michigan 21
Beaver Stadium
2018 · Michigan 42, Penn State 7
Michigan Stadium
2017 · Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Beaver Stadium
2016 · Michigan 49, Penn State 10
Michigan Stadium
2015 · Michigan 28, Penn State 16
Beaver Stadium
2014 · Michigan 18, Penn State 13
Michigan Stadium
2013 · Penn State 43, Michigan 40
Beaver Stadium
2010 · Penn State 41, Michigan 31
Beaver Stadium
2009 · Penn State 35, Michigan 10
Michigan Stadium
2008 · Penn State 46, Michigan 17
Beaver Stadium
2007 · Michigan 14, Penn State 9
Michigan Stadium
2006 · Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Beaver Stadium
2005 · Michigan 27, Penn State 25
Michigan Stadium
2002 · Michigan 27, Penn State 24
Michigan Stadium
2001 · Michigan 20, Penn State 0
Beaver Stadium
2000 · Michigan 33, Penn State 11
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Penn State: 13 games
- Michigan: 13 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD