Saturday, October 17

Louisiana

4–2

Troy

3–2

5:00 PM ET4:00 PM CTCajun FieldLafayette, LA

Weather

Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 4:00 PM CT · Updated 12:45 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Lafayette · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

59%

Louisiana win probability

Troy 41%

Louisiana by 3.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Troy's case

Troy's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Troy's defense was in the 66th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Louisiana's offense was in the 16th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Louisiana's answer

Louisiana has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Troy's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Louisiana leans on its top passer

Louisiana's leading passer threw 59% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Louisiana has the ball

Louisiana offense: 25th
Troy defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Louisiana offensive per play: 0.1125th percentile · #97 nationally
Troy PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Louisiana success rate: 38%16th percentile · #114 nationally
Troy success rate allowed: 40%66th percentile · #47 nationally
Louisiana points per game: 26.041st percentile · #80 nationally
Troy per game: 23.957th percentile · #58 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Louisiana offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 41.8%

Troy defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 43.0%

When Troy has the ball

Troy offense: 16th
Louisiana defense: 21st

Show the underlying numbers

Troy offensive PPA per play: 0.0816th percentile · #112 nationally
Louisiana PPA allowed per play: 0.2021st percentile · #100 nationally
Troy success rate: 38%14th percentile · #117 nationally
Louisiana success rate allowed: 46%8th percentile · #125 nationally
Troy points per game: 23.529th percentile · #95 nationally
Louisiana points allowed per game: 29.229th percentile · #97 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Troy offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.32
Rush success: 37.1%

Louisiana defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 46.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Lunch Winfield · 59% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 76 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.0; over 76 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 55%; over 76 attempts with a result

175 of 180 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 143 short · 32 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Louisiana offense in 2025

Lunch Winfield

QB · 11 games

127/216 · 59% season

Passing yards: 1,555
Touchdowns: 11
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Delaware · Dec 17, 2025: 21/36, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Bill Davis

RB · 13 games

Carries: 158
Rushing yards: 763
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Delaware · Dec 17, 2025: 10 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD

Shelton Sampson Jr.

WR · 9 games

Receptions: 32
Receiving yards: 537
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Delaware · Dec 17, 2025: 3 rec, 42 yds, 1 TD

Louisiana player tables

Who is producing

Louisiana player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Louisiana — Passing production
Player
D'Wayne' WinfieldQB	11	127 / 216	1,555	7.2	11	7
Daniel BealeQB	5	42 / 84	385	4.6	1	4
Walker HowardQB	6	18 / 41	155	3.8	0	3

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Troy player tables

Who is producing

Troy player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Troy — Passing production
Player
Tucker KilcreaseQB	10	130 / 222	1,537	6.9	9	6
Will CrowderQB	8	115 / 196	1,327	6.8	11	5
Ui AleQB	1	5 / 10	54	5.4	0	0
Evan CrenshawP	1	1 / 1	11	11.0	0	0
Jarris WilliamsRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Rara ThomasWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Louisiana's line averages 312.7 lbs against Troy's 286.8 lbs front — an edge of 25.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Louisiana OLLouisiana OL vs Troy DL	312.7 lbs	286.8 lbs
Troy OLTroy OL vs Louisiana DL	308.5 lbs	272.3 lbs

Louisiana
Troy

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Louisiana

Points per game: 26.0#80 nationally · 41st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 29.2#97 nationally · 29th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 57% of 2024 PPA returns · 58th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Troy

Points per game: 23.5#95 nationally · 29th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 23.9#58 nationally · 57th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 33% of 2024 PPA returns · 31st percentile
Upperclassmen: 51% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Louisiana

2025 signing class · #80 nationally: 41st percentile · 165.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #89 nationally: 35th percentile · −0.49 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #91 nationally: 32nd percentile · 585.8

Troy

2025 signing class · #82 nationally: 40th percentile · 164.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #88 nationally: 36th percentile · −0.49 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #99 nationally: 26th percentile · 561.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Louisiana: solid line, circles · Troy: dashed line, squares

Louisiana

Offense · 2025: 25.3 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.0 · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 165.3 pts · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 57% returning · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Troy

Offense · SP+ 2025: 23.6 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.0 · 38th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.7 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 164.7 pts · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 33% returning · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Louisiana's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 17
vs Delaware · neutral site
L 13–20
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 69 recorded plays
vs UL Monroe
W 30–27
30%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Nov 20 · 74 recorded plays
at Arkansas State
W 34–30
39%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Louisiana

Head coach: Michael Desormeaux
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Tim Leger
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jim Salgado
career +30.9 SP+ defense

Troy

Head coach: Gerad Parker
career −7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Offonvictory, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Adam Austin
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Dontae Wright
career +29.6 SP+ defense; Nathan Burton
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Troy leads 11–8 since 2000

2025 · Troy 35, Louisiana 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2024 · Louisiana 51, Troy 30
Cajun Field
2023 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2022 · Troy 23, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2021 · Louisiana 35, Troy 21
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2019 · Louisiana 53, Troy 3
Cajun Field
2018 · Troy 26, Louisiana 16
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2015 · Troy 41, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2014 · Louisiana 42, Troy 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2013 · Louisiana 41, Troy 36
Cajun Field
2012 · Louisiana 37, Troy 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2011 · Louisiana 31, Troy 17
Cajun Field
2010 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2009 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2008 · Troy 48, Louisiana 3
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2007 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2006 · Troy 42, Louisiana 28
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2005 · Louisiana 31, Troy 28
Cajun Field
2004 · Troy 13, Louisiana 10
Cajun Field

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Louisiana: 13 games
Troy: 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Troy's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Louisiana has no clear answer on this matchup

Louisiana leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Louisiana has the ball

Louisiana offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Troy defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Troy has the ball

Troy offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Louisiana defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Lunch Winfield

Bill Davis

Shelton Sampson Jr.

Louisiana player production

Troy player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Louisiana

Troy

Recruiting

Louisiana

Troy

Season percentile profiles

Louisiana

Troy

Louisiana's recent games

vs Delaware · neutral site

vs UL Monroe

at Arkansas State

The coaching staff

Louisiana

Troy

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Troy's defense leads its matchup in allowed