Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
0–5
vs
Louisiana Tech
3–2
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTMalone StadiumMonroe, LA
Clear71°FNE 7 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 12:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Monroe · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear71°FNE 7 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
15%
UL Monroe win probability
Louisiana Tech 85%
Louisiana Tech by 14.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · UL Monroe's case
UL Monroe's defense was in the 59th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Louisiana Tech's offense was in the 30th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Louisiana Tech's answer
Louisiana Tech's defense was in the 87th percentile for success rate allowed last season. UL Monroe's offense was in the 11th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives UL Monroe a 15% chance to win and predicts Louisiana Tech by 14.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Aidan Armenta · 84% of charted pass attempts
246 of 254 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 186 short · 60 deep · 8 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (53%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 6.9 over 128 attempts with a result.
The UL Monroe offense in 2025
QB · 11 games
147/252 · 58% season
Last game
Louisiana · Nov 29, 2025: 19/31, 311 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Louisiana · Nov 29, 2025: 11 carries, 49 yds, 0 TD
WR · 10 games
Last game
Louisiana · Nov 29, 2025: 2 rec, 79 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ArmentaQB | 11 | 147 / 252 | 1,619 | 6.4 | 12 | 8 |
| Landon GravesQB | 6 | 19 / 40 | 185 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Hunter HerringQB | 5 | 5 / 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | 2 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake BakerQB | 8 | 102 / 155 | 1,252 | 8.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Trey KukukQB | 9 | 67 / 106 | 644 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 |
| Evan BullockQB | 3 | 26 / 46 | 243 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew BurnetteRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clay TheveninRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Hoyet ChanceP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke WatkinsWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | −5 | −5.0 | 0 | 0 |
7 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
UL Monroe's line averages 301.9 lbs against Louisiana Tech's 267.4 lbs front — an edge of 34.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe OLUL Monroe OL vs Louisiana Tech DL | 301.9 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
| Louisiana Tech OLLouisiana Tech OL vs UL Monroe DL | 298.6 lbs | 273.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
UL Monroe: solid line, circles · Louisiana Tech: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 78 recorded plays
L 27–30
46%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 63 recorded plays
L 14–31
40%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 44 recorded plays
L 14–26
20%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Bryant Vincent
career −12.9 SP+ overall
Nathan Young
career +15.9 SP+ offense
Luke Olson
career +31.3 SP+ defense
2000 · Louisiana Tech 42, UL Monroe 19
Evidence window: 2025 full season