Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–2
at
UL Monroe
0–5
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTMalone StadiumMonroe, LA
Clear71°FNE 7 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 12:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Monroe · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear71°FNE 7 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
85%
Louisiana Tech win probability
UL Monroe 15%
Louisiana Tech by 14.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Louisiana Tech's case
Louisiana Tech's defense was in the 87th percentile for success rate allowed last season. UL Monroe's offense was in the 11th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · UL Monroe's answer
UL Monroe's defense was in the 59th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Louisiana Tech's offense was in the 30th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
UL Monroe's record this season is 0–5.
See the recordsOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Blake Baker · 53% of charted pass attempts
152 of 154 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 137 short · 15 deep · 2 not stated
The Louisiana Tech offense in 2025
QB · 8 games
102/155 · 66% season
Last game
Delaware · Nov 8, 2025: 4/7, 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Coastal Carolina · Dec 30, 2025: 10 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD
TE · 11 games
Last game
Coastal Carolina · Dec 30, 2025: 1 rec, 4 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake BakerQB | 8 | 102 / 155 | 1,252 | 8.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Trey KukukQB | 9 | 67 / 106 | 644 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 |
| Evan BullockQB | 3 | 26 / 46 | 243 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew BurnetteRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clay TheveninRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Hoyet ChanceP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke WatkinsWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | −5 | −5.0 | 0 | 0 |
7 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ArmentaQB | 11 | 147 / 252 | 1,619 | 6.4 | 12 | 8 |
| Landon GravesQB | 6 | 19 / 40 | 185 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Hunter HerringQB | 5 | 5 / 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | 2 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Louisiana Tech's line averages 298.6 lbs against UL Monroe's 273.7 lbs front — an edge of 24.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech OLLouisiana Tech OL vs UL Monroe DL | 298.6 lbs | 273.7 lbs |
| UL Monroe OLUL Monroe OL vs Louisiana Tech DL | 301.9 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Louisiana Tech: solid line, circles · UL Monroe: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 30
W 23–14
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 67 recorded plays
W 42–30
40%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 78 recorded plays
W 34–28
42%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Nathan Young
career +15.9 SP+ offense
Luke Olson
career +31.3 SP+ defense
Bryant Vincent
career −12.9 SP+ overall
2000 · Louisiana Tech 42, UL Monroe 19
Evidence window: 2025 full season