Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
6–0 · AP #2
at
BYU
5–0 · AP #8
7:30 PM ET5:30 PM MTLaVell Edwards StadiumProvo, UT
Clear66°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 5:30 PM MT · Updated 12:31 PM MT · National Weather Service
Provo · local time (MT)
Kickoff hour
Clear66°FW 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
83%
Notre Dame win probability
BYU 17%
Notre Dame by 13.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Notre Dame's case
Notre Dame's defense was in the 94th percentile for allowed per play last season. BYU's offense was in the 76th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · BYU's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against Notre Dame's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Notre Dame a 83% chance to win and predicts Notre Dame by 13.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
CJ Carr · 91% of charted pass attempts
287 of 294 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 232 short · 55 deep · 7 not stated
The Notre Dame offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
195/293 · 67% season
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 17/27, 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 14 carries, 66 yds, 1 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Stanford · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 68 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. CarrQB | 12 | 195 / 293 | 2,741 | 9.4 | 24 | 6 |
| Kenny MincheyQB | 5 | 20 / 26 | 196 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan FaisonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua BurnhamDL | 1 | 1 / 1 | 84 | 84.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear BachmeierQB | 14 | 251 / 387 | 3,033 | 7.8 | 15 | 7 |
| Parker KingstonWR | 5 | 1 / 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 |
| McCae HillsteadQB | 1 | 4 / 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Treyson BourguetQB | 1 | 1 / 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Vander HaarP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Notre Dame's line averages 308.1 lbs against BYU's 271.2 lbs front — an edge of 36.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame OLNotre Dame OL vs BYU DL | 308.1 lbs | 271.2 lbs |
| BYU OLBYU OL vs Notre Dame DL | 305.2 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Notre Dame: solid line, circles · BYU: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 47 recorded plays
W 49–20
49%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 12 recorded plays
W 70–7
67%
Success rate
1.11
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 63 recorded plays
W 37–15
43%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Aaron Roderick
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Kelly Poppinga
career +31.5 SP+ defense
2022 · Notre Dame 28, BYU 20
Neutral site · Allegiant Stadium
2013 · Notre Dame 23, BYU 13
Notre Dame Stadium
2012 · Notre Dame 17, BYU 14
Notre Dame Stadium
2005 · Notre Dame 49, BYU 23
Notre Dame Stadium
2004 · BYU 20, Notre Dame 17
LaVell Edwards Stadium
2003 · Notre Dame 33, BYU 14
Notre Dame Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season
