Saturday, October 17

Syracuse

2–3

Louisville

3–3

7:30 PM ETJMA Wireless DomeSyracuse, NY

Weather

Played indoors at JMA Wireless Dome.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

20%

Syracuse win probability

Louisville 80%

Louisville by 11.7

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Syracuse's case

No clear statistical strength for Syracuse

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Syracuse unit ranked well below the Louisville unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Louisville's answer

Louisville's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Louisville's defense was in the 84th percentile for allowed per play last season. Syracuse's offense was in the 8th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

Syracuse has spread its pass attempts

Syracuse's leading passer threw 44% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Syracuse has the ball

Syracuse offense: 8th
Louisville defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

Syracuse offensive PPA per play: 0.058th percentile · #123 nationally
Louisville PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
Syracuse: 39%19th percentile · #111 nationally
Louisville success rate allowed: 36%89th percentile · #16 nationally
Syracuse points per game: 20.213th percentile · #118 nationally
Louisville per game: 21.273rd percentile · #38 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Syracuse offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 36.5%

Louisville defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.16
Rush success allowed: 38.6%

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville offense: 39th
Syracuse defense: 3rd

Show the underlying numbers

Louisville offensive PPA per play: 0.1539th percentile · #79 nationally
Syracuse PPA allowed per play: 0.273rd percentile · #129 nationally
Louisville success rate: 45%73rd percentile · #37 nationally
Syracuse success rate allowed: 45%13th percentile · #119 nationally
Louisville points per game: 29.967th percentile · #46 nationally
Syracuse points allowed per game: 34.94th percentile · #130 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Louisville offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 52.3%

Syracuse defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.38
Rush success allowed: 43.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Rickie Collins · 44% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 67 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.1; over 67 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 57%; over 67 attempts with a result

171 of 181 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 146 short · 25 deep · 10 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Syracuse offense in 2025

Rickie Collins

QB · 7 games

97/181 · 54% season

Passing yards: 1,042
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 10

Last game

Miami · Nov 8, 2025: 12/25, 85 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Yasin Willis

RB · 9 games

Carries: 129
Rushing yards: 553
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Miami · Nov 8, 2025: 13 carries, 63 yds, 0 TD

Johntay Cook II

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 47
Receiving yards: 559
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Boston College · Nov 29, 2025: 3 rec, 28 yds, 0 TD

Syracuse player tables

Who is producing

Syracuse player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Syracuse — Passing production
Player
Rickie CollinsQB	7	97 / 181	1,042	5.8	6	10
Steven AngeliQB	4	97 / 155	1,317	8.5	10	2
Joseph FilardiQB	4	31 / 65	226	3.5	1	3
Luke CarneyQB	2	5 / 7	22	3.1	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Louisville player tables

Who is producing

Louisville player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Louisville — Passing production
Player
Miller MossQB	12	244 / 380	2,679	7.1	16	7
Deuce AdamsQB	3	15 / 21	112	5.3	0	0
Brady AllenQB	2	8 / 12	75	6.3	1	2
Caullin LacyWR	1	1 / 1	2	2.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Syracuse's line averages 314.6 lbs against Louisville's 276.5 lbs front — an edge of 38.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Syracuse OLSyracuse OL vs Louisville DL	314.6 lbs	276.5 lbs
Louisville OLLouisville OL vs Syracuse DL	304.7 lbs	282.6 lbs

Syracuse
Louisville

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Syracuse

Points per game: 20.2#118 nationally · 13th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 34.9#130 nationally · 4th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 14% of 2024 PPA returns · 9th percentile
Upperclassmen: 33% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Louisville

Points per game: 29.9#46 nationally · 67th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 21.2#38 nationally · 73rd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 46% of 2024 PPA returns · 44th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Syracuse

2025 signing class · #42 nationally: 70th percentile · 206.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #50 nationally: 64th percentile · 0.26 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #34 nationally: 75th percentile · 727.8

Louisville

2025 signing class · #68 nationally: 50th percentile · 183.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #57 nationally: 59th percentile · 0.21 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #50 nationally: 63rd percentile · 700.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Syracuse: solid line, circles · Louisville: dashed line, squares

Syracuse

Offense · 2025: 18.8 · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.0 · 22nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.1 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 206.4 pts · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 14% returning · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Louisville

Offense · SP+ 2025: 31.6 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 19.8 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.6 · 60th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 183.1 pts · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 46% returning · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Syracuse's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 51 recorded plays
vs Boston College
L 12–34
37%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 21 recorded plays
at Notre Dame
L 7–70
10%
Success rate
−1.31
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 53 recorded plays
at Miami
L 10–38
32%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Syracuse

Head coach: Fran Brown
career −3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Nixon
career +28.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mike Johnson
Co-offensive coordinator · career +28.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0
Defensive coordinator: John Scott Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +24.7 SP+ defense; Vince Kehres
career +24.7 SP+ defense

Louisville

Head coach: Jeff Brohm
career +7.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Brian Brohm
career +33.4 SP+ offense
Photo: Winnipeg Blue Bombers, CC BY 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Mark Ivey
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense; Steve Ellis
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Louisville leads 13–5 since 2000

2022 · Syracuse 31, Louisville 7
JMA Wireless Dome
2021 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 3
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2020 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 0
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2019 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 34
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2018 · Syracuse 54, Louisville 23
JMA Wireless Dome
2017 · Louisville 56, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2016 · Louisville 62, Syracuse 28
JMA Wireless Dome
2015 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2014 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 6
JMA Wireless Dome
2012 · Syracuse 45, Louisville 26
JMA Wireless Dome
2011 · Louisville 27, Syracuse 10
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2010 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome
2009 · Louisville 10, Syracuse 9
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2008 · Syracuse 28, Louisville 21
JMA Wireless Dome
2007 · Syracuse 38, Louisville 35
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2006 · Louisville 28, Syracuse 13
JMA Wireless Dome
2005 · Louisville 41, Syracuse 17
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
2003 · Louisville 30, Syracuse 20
JMA Wireless Dome

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Syracuse: 12 games
Louisville: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Syracuse

Louisville's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Syracuse has spread its pass attempts

When each team has the ball

When Syracuse has the ball

Syracuse offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Louisville defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Syracuse defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Rickie Collins

Yasin Willis

Johntay Cook II

Syracuse player production

Louisville player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Syracuse

Louisville

Recruiting

Syracuse

Louisville

Season percentile profiles

Syracuse

Louisville

Syracuse's recent games

vs Boston College

at Notre Dame

at Miami

The coaching staff

Syracuse

Louisville

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources