Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–2
vs
Kansas
2–3
12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTBill Snyder Family StadiumManhattan, KS
Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Manhattan · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
54%
Kansas State win probability
Kansas 46%
Kansas State by 1.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Kansas State's case
Kansas State's offense was in the 71st percentile for per play last season. Kansas's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Kansas's answer
Kansas's offense was in the 91st percentile for success rate last season. Kansas State's defense was in the 67th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Kansas State a 54% chance to win and predicts Kansas State by 1.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Avery Johnson · 100% of charted pass attempts
335 of 341 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 292 short · 43 deep · 6 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (45%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.2 over 67 attempts with a result.
The Kansas State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
204/341 · 60% season
Last game
Colorado · Nov 29, 2025: 10/17, 115 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 11 games
Last game
Colorado · Nov 29, 2025: 26 carries, 142 yds, 3 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Colorado · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 55 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery JohnsonQB | 12 | 204 / 341 | 2,380 | 7.0 | 18 | 6 |
| Linkon CureTE | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon DanielsQB | 12 | 198 / 319 | 2,504 | 7.8 | 22 | 7 |
| Cole BallardQB | 5 | 10 / 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah MarshallQB | 1 | 3 / 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kansas State's line averages 305.2 lbs against Kansas's 282.6 lbs front — an edge of 22.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State OLKansas State OL vs Kansas DL | 305.2 lbs | 282.6 lbs |
| Kansas OLKansas OL vs Kansas State DL | 310.3 lbs | 279.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Kansas State: solid line, circles · Kansas: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
W 24–14
41%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 69 recorded plays
L 47–51
49%
Success rate
0.56
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 60 recorded plays
W 14–6
30%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Collin Klein
First season as Kansas State's head coach · no career rating on file
Sean Gleeson
career +24.1 SP+ offense
Jordan Peterson
career +24.7 SP+ defense
Lance Leipold
career −3.6 SP+ overall
Andy Kotelnicki
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Jim Zebrowski
career +31.0 SP+ offense
Matt Lubick
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
D. K. McDonald
career +27.5 SP+ defense
2025 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 17
Memorial Stadium
2024 · Kansas State 29, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2023 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 27
Memorial Stadium
2022 · Kansas State 47, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2021 · Kansas State 35, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2020 · Kansas State 55, Kansas 14
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2019 · Kansas State 38, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2018 · Kansas State 21, Kansas 17
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2017 · Kansas State 30, Kansas 20
Memorial Stadium
2016 · Kansas State 34, Kansas 19
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2015 · Kansas State 45, Kansas 14
Memorial Stadium
2014 · Kansas State 51, Kansas 13
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2013 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2012 · Kansas State 56, Kansas 16
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2011 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 21
Memorial Stadium
2010 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 7
Memorial Stadium
2009 · Kansas State 17, Kansas 10
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2008 · Kansas 52, Kansas State 21
Memorial Stadium
2007 · Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2006 · Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Memorial Stadium
2005 · Kansas State 12, Kansas 3
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2004 · Kansas 31, Kansas State 28
Memorial Stadium
2003 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2002 · Kansas State 64, Kansas 0
Memorial Stadium
2001 · Kansas State 40, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2000 · Kansas State 52, Kansas 13
Evidence window: 2025 full season