Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Akron
1–5
3:30 PM ETYager StadiumOxford, OH
Clear54°FN 6 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 4:00 PM ET · National Weather Service
Oxford · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear54°FN 6 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
80%
Miami (OH) win probability
Akron 20%
Miami (OH) by 11.7
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.7 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Miami (OH)'s case
Miami (OH)'s defense was in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play last season. Akron's offense was in the 13th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Akron's answer
Akron's defense was in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed last season. Miami (OH)'s offense was in the 20th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Miami (OH)'s leading passer threw 59% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Dequan Finn · 59% of charted pass attempts
176 of 182 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 143 short · 33 deep · 6 not stated
The Miami (OH) offense in 2025
QB · 8 games
106/181 · 59% season
Last game
Ohio · Nov 4, 2025: 17/25, 194 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Fresno State · Dec 27, 2025: 9 carries, 43 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Fresno State · Dec 27, 2025: 2 rec, 43 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dequan FinnQB | 8 | 106 / 181 | 1,451 | 8.0 | 9 | 6 |
| Henry HessonQB | 5 | 39 / 98 | 596 | 6.1 | 4 | 3 |
| Thomas GotkowskiQB | 4 | 38 / 86 | 575 | 6.7 | 4 | 1 |
| Carter HoldenPK | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lynel Billups-WilliamsWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben FinleyQB | 11 | 186 / 362 | 2,475 | 6.8 | 19 | 9 |
| Michael Johnson Jr.QB | 5 | 12 / 23 | 62 | 2.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Brayden RoggowQB | 3 | 11 / 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Miami (OH)'s line averages 299.1 lbs against Akron's 263.7 lbs front — an edge of 35.4 lbs a man.
Akron's front average is based on 23 of 25 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) OLMiami (OH) OL vs Akron DL | 299.1 lbs | 263.7 lbs |
| Akron OLAkron OL vs Miami (OH) DL | 299.4 lbs | 259.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Miami (OH): solid line, circles · Akron: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
L 3–18
Play stats pending
Dec 6 · 70 recorded plays
L 13–23
29%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
W 45–24
52%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Chuck Martin
career −6.2 SP+ overall
Joe Moorhead
career −8.3 SP+ overall
Tim Tibesar
career +32.7 SP+ defense
2025 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2023 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2022 · Miami (OH) 27, Akron 9
InfoCision Stadium
2021 · Miami (OH) 34, Akron 21
Yager Stadium
2020 · Miami (OH) 38, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2019 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 17
Yager Stadium
2018 · Miami (OH) 41, Akron 17
InfoCision Stadium
2017 · Miami (OH) 24, Akron 14
Yager Stadium
2016 · Akron 35, Miami (OH) 13
InfoCision Stadium
2015 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 28
Yager Stadium
2014 · Akron 29, Miami (OH) 19
InfoCision Stadium
2013 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 17
Yager Stadium
2012 · Miami (OH) 56, Akron 49
InfoCision Stadium
2011 · Miami (OH) 35, Akron 3
Yager Stadium
2010 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 14
InfoCision Stadium
2007 · Miami (OH) 7, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2006 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 13
2005 · Miami (OH) 51, Akron 23
Yager Stadium
2004 · Miami (OH) 37, Akron 27
2003 · Miami (OH) 45, Akron 20
Yager Stadium
2002 · Miami (OH) 48, Akron 31
2001 · Miami (OH) 30, Akron 27
Yager Stadium
2000 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 20
Evidence window: 2025 full season