Saturday, October 17

Akron

1–5

Miami (OH)

3–3

3:30 PM ETYager StadiumOxford, OH

Weather

Clear54°FN 6 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 4:00 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Oxford · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear54°FN 6 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

20%

Akron win probability

Miami (OH) 80%

Miami (OH) by 11.7

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.7 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Akron's case

Akron's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Akron's defense was in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed last season. Miami (OH)'s offense was in the 20th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Miami (OH)'s answer

Miami (OH)'s defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Miami (OH)'s defense was in the 73rd percentile for allowed per play last season. Akron's offense was in the 13th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Akron a 20% chance to win and predicts Miami (OH) by 11.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.7 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Akron has the ball

Akron offense: 13th
Miami (OH) defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

Akron offensive PPA per play: 0.0713th percentile · #116 nationally
Miami (OH) PPA allowed per play: 0.0973rd percentile · #34 nationally
Akron success rate: 40%21st percentile · #107 nationally
Miami (OH) success rate allowed: 39%68th percentile · #44 nationally
Akron points per game: 22.321st percentile · #108 nationally
Miami (OH) per game: 21.770th percentile · #41 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Akron offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 39.3%

Miami (OH) defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.27
Rush success allowed: 35.6%

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Miami (OH) offense: 21st
Akron defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Miami (OH) offensive PPA per play: 0.1021st percentile · #103 nationally
Akron PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Miami (OH) success rate: 39%20th percentile · #109 nationally
Akron success rate allowed: 40%61st percentile · #53 nationally
Miami (OH) points per game: 23.529th percentile · #95 nationally
Akron points allowed per game: 27.437th percentile · #86 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Miami (OH) offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 40.3%

Akron defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.32
Rush success allowed: 42.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ben Finley · 90% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 156 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.5; over 156 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 50%; over 156 attempts with a result

351 of 363 have a direction · 12 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 293 short · 58 deep · 12 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.6 over 91 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Akron offense in 2025

Ben Finley

QB · 11 games

186/362 · 51% season

Passing yards: 2,475
Touchdowns: 19
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Bowling Green · Nov 18, 2025: 9/26, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Jordan Gant

RB · 12 games

Carries: 213
Rushing yards: 1,032
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Bowling Green · Nov 18, 2025: 22 carries, 86 yds, 0 TD

Marcel Williams

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 45
Receiving yards: 641
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Bowling Green · Nov 18, 2025: 6 rec, 74 yds, 0 TD

Akron player tables

Who is producing

Akron player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Akron — Passing production
Player
Ben FinleyQB	11	186 / 362	2,475	6.8	19	9
Michael Johnson Jr.QB	5	12 / 23	62	2.7	1	0
Brayden RoggowQB	3	11 / 17	91	5.4	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Miami (OH) player tables

Who is producing

Miami (OH) player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Miami (OH) — Passing production
Player
Dequan FinnQB	8	106 / 181	1,451	8.0	9	6
Henry HessonQB	5	39 / 98	596	6.1	4	3
Thomas GotkowskiQB	4	38 / 86	575	6.7	4	1
Carter HoldenPK	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1
Lynel Billups-WilliamsWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Akron's line averages 299.4 lbs against Miami (OH)'s 259.1 lbs front — an edge of 40.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Akron OLAkron OL vs Miami (OH) DL	299.4 lbs	259.1 lbs
Miami (OH) OLMiami (OH) OL vs Akron DL	299.1 lbs	263.7 lbs

Akron
Miami (OH)

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Akron

Points per game: 22.3#108 nationally · 21st percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 27.4#86 nationally · 37th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 37% of 2024 PPA returns · 34th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 104 of 104 with a class year

Miami (OH)

Points per game: 23.5#95 nationally · 29th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 21.7#41 nationally · 70th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 48% of 2024 PPA returns · 44th percentile
Upperclassmen: 32% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Akron

2025 signing class · #127 nationally: 7th percentile · 87.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #124 nationally: 9th percentile · −1.13 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #104 nationally: 23rd percentile · 537.2

Miami (OH)

2025 signing class · #83 nationally: 39th percentile · 164.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #81 nationally: 41st percentile · −0.38 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #87 nationally: 35th percentile · 592.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Akron: solid line, circles · Miami (OH): dashed line, squares

Akron

Offense · 2025: 17.2 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.3 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.9 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 87.4 pts · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 37% returning · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Miami (OH)

Offense · SP+ 2025: 19.3 · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 164.2 pts · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 48% returning · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Akron's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 18 · 67 recorded plays
at Bowling Green
W 19–16
30%
Success rate
−0.04
PPA / play
Nov 11 · 99 recorded plays
vs Kent State
L 35–42
41%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Nov 4 · 56 recorded plays
vs Massachusetts
W 44–10
50%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Akron

Head coach: Joe Moorhead
career −8.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Tim Tibesar
career +32.7 SP+ defense

Miami (OH)

Head coach: Chuck Martin
career −6.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

Miami (OH) leads 17–6 since 2000

2025 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2023 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2022 · Miami (OH) 27, Akron 9
InfoCision Stadium
2021 · Miami (OH) 34, Akron 21
Yager Stadium
2020 · Miami (OH) 38, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2019 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 17
Yager Stadium
2018 · Miami (OH) 41, Akron 17
InfoCision Stadium
2017 · Miami (OH) 24, Akron 14
Yager Stadium
2016 · Akron 35, Miami (OH) 13
InfoCision Stadium
2015 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 28
Yager Stadium
2014 · Akron 29, Miami (OH) 19
InfoCision Stadium
2013 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 17
Yager Stadium
2012 · Miami (OH) 56, Akron 49
InfoCision Stadium
2011 · Miami (OH) 35, Akron 3
Yager Stadium
2010 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 14
InfoCision Stadium
2007 · Miami (OH) 7, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2006 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 13
2005 · Miami (OH) 51, Akron 23
Yager Stadium
2004 · Miami (OH) 37, Akron 27
2003 · Miami (OH) 45, Akron 20
Yager Stadium
2002 · Miami (OH) 48, Akron 31
2001 · Miami (OH) 30, Akron 27
Yager Stadium
2000 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 20

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Akron: 12 games
Miami (OH): 14 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Akron's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Miami (OH)'s defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Akron has the ball

Akron offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Miami (OH) defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Miami (OH) offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Akron defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ben Finley

Jordan Gant

Marcel Williams

Akron player production

Miami (OH) player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Akron

Miami (OH)

Recruiting

Akron

Miami (OH)

Season percentile profiles

Akron

Miami (OH)

Akron's recent games

at Bowling Green

vs Kent State

vs Massachusetts

The coaching staff

Akron

Miami (OH)

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Akron's defense leads its matchup in allowed