Friday, October 16
Compare these teams
3–2
at
Coastal Carolina
2–4
8:00 PM ETBrooks Stadium (SC)Conway, SC
Clear76°FSW 6 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 10%
At kickoff · 8:00 PM ET · Updated 3:02 PM ET · National Weather Service
Conway · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear76°FSW 6 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 10%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
44%
App State win probability
Coastal Carolina 56%
Coastal Carolina by 2.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · App State's case
App State's defense was in the 36th percentile for allowed per play last season. Coastal Carolina's offense was in the 10th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Coastal Carolina's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against App State's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
App State's leading passer threw 46% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
AJ Swann · 46% of charted pass attempts
213 of 220 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 183 short · 30 deep · 7 not stated
The App State offense in 2025
QB · 7 games
130/222 · 59% season
Last game
James Madison · Nov 15, 2025: 8/28, 64 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Arkansas State · Nov 29, 2025: 11 carries, 40 yds, 0 TD
WR · 9 games
Last game
James Madison · Nov 15, 2025: 1 rec, 3 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ SwannQB | 7 | 130 / 222 | 1,494 | 6.7 | 10 | 8 |
| J.J. KohlQB | 8 | 133 / 216 | 1,465 | 6.8 | 12 | 2 |
| Noah GillonQB | 4 | 17 / 39 | 175 | 4.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Matthew WilsonQB | 1 | 12 / 22 | 128 | 5.8 | 0 | 2 |
| Billy WilesQB | 2 | 6 / 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 | 1 |
| DJ BurksDB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian RatliffP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 |
7 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tad HudsonQB | 10 | 139 / 254 | 1,253 | 4.9 | 6 | 7 |
| Samari CollierQB | 5 | 38 / 78 | 489 | 6.3 | 7 | 2 |
| MJ MorrisQB | 3 | 35 / 60 | 304 | 5.1 | 1 | 4 |
| Bryson GravesWR | 5 | 4 / 5 | 144 | 28.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Emile SebafundiP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robby WashingtonWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
App State's line averages 302.3 lbs against Coastal Carolina's 265.5 lbs front — an edge of 36.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| App State OLApp State OL vs Coastal Carolina DL | 302.3 lbs | 265.5 lbs |
| Coastal Carolina OLCoastal Carolina OL vs App State DL | 314.4 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
App State: solid line, circles · Coastal Carolina: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 29
L 10–29
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 78 recorded plays
L 29–30
44%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 72 recorded plays
W 26–24
42%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Dowell Loggains
career −11.4 SP+ overall
Ryan Beard
career −10.7 SP+ overall
Nick Petrino
career +25.6 SP+ offense
L. D. Scott
career +34.8 SP+ defense
2025 · Coastal Carolina 45, App State 37
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2024 · Coastal Carolina 38, App State 24
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2023 · Coastal Carolina 27, App State 24
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2022 · Coastal Carolina 35, App State 28
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2021 · App State 30, Coastal Carolina 27
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2020 · Coastal Carolina 34, App State 23
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2019 · App State 56, Coastal Carolina 37
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2018 · App State 23, Coastal Carolina 7
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2017 · App State 37, Coastal Carolina 29
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season