Friday, October 16

Washington

3–3

Purdue

3–3

8:00 PM ETRoss-Ade StadiumWest Lafayette, IN

Weather

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 8:00 PM ET · Updated 2:45 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

West Lafayette · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy54°FNW 16 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

57%

Washington win probability

Purdue 43%

Washington by 2.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Washington's case

Washington's offense leads its matchup in

Washington's offense was in the 93rd percentile for success rate last season. Purdue's defense was in the 5th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Purdue's answer

No clear statistical strength for Purdue

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Purdue unit ranked well below the Washington unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Washington a 57% chance to win and predicts Washington by 2.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense: 86th
Purdue defense: 3rd

Show the underlying numbers

Washington offensive per play: 0.2986th percentile · #19 nationally
Purdue PPA allowed per play: 0.273rd percentile · #129 nationally
Washington success rate: 49%93rd percentile · #10 nationally
Purdue success rate allowed: 48%5th percentile · #129 nationally
Washington points per game: 34.188th percentile · #17 nationally
Purdue per game: 31.813th percentile · #117 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Washington offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.18
Rush success: 48.1%

Purdue defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 48.1%

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense: 21st
Washington defense: 84th

Show the underlying numbers

Purdue offensive PPA per play: 0.1021st percentile · #103 nationally
Washington PPA allowed per play: 0.0684th percentile · #19 nationally
Purdue success rate: 42%47th percentile · #73 nationally
Washington success rate allowed: 38%79th percentile · #29 nationally
Purdue points per game: 18.810th percentile · #123 nationally
Washington points allowed per game: 18.790th percentile · #15 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Purdue offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 42.1%

Washington defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.17
Rush success allowed: 39.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Demond Williams Jr. · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 136 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.9; over 136 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 72%; over 136 attempts with a result

322 of 329 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 278 short · 44 deep · 7 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Washington offense in 2025

Demond Williams Jr.

QB · 13 games

246/354 · 69% season

Passing yards: 3,065
Touchdowns: 25
Interceptions: 8

Last game

Boise State · Dec 13, 2025: 15/24, 215 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

Jonah Coleman

RB · 12 games

Carries: 156
Rushing yards: 758
Touchdowns: 15

Last game

Boise State · Dec 13, 2025: 12 carries, 85 yds, 1 TD

Denzel Boston

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 62
Receiving yards: 881
Touchdowns: 11

Last game

Boise State · Dec 13, 2025: 6 rec, 126 yds, 1 TD

Washington player tables

Who is producing

Washington player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Washington — Passing production
Player
Demond Williams Jr.QB	13	246 / 354	3,065	8.7	25	8
Kai HortonQB	4	7 / 13	98	7.5	0	0
Denzel BostonWR	2	2 / 2	15	7.5	1	0
Grady GrossPK	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Purdue player tables

Who is producing

Purdue player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Purdue — Passing production
Player
Ryan BrowneQB	12	199 / 338	2,153	6.4	9	10
Malachi SingletonQB	8	38 / 64	439	6.9	5	2
Devin MockobeeRB	2	1 / 2	14	7.0	1	1

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Washington's line averages 321.6 lbs against Purdue's 279.3 lbs front — an edge of 42.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Washington OLWashington OL vs Purdue DL	321.6 lbs	279.3 lbs
Purdue OLPurdue OL vs Washington DL	307.5 lbs	277.6 lbs

Washington
Purdue

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Washington

Points per game: 34.1#17 nationally · 88th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 18.7#15 nationally · 90th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 42% of 2024 PPA returns · 39th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 105 of 105 with a class year

Purdue

Points per game: 18.8#123 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 31.8#117 nationally · 13th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 54% of 2024 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Recruiting

Washington

2025 signing class · #23 nationally: 84th percentile · 235.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 0.56 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #37 nationally: 73rd percentile · 720.6

Purdue

2025 signing class · #99 nationally: 27th percentile · 147.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #66 nationally: 52nd percentile · 0.04 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #54 nationally: 60th percentile · 687.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Washington: solid line, circles · Purdue: dashed line, squares

Washington

Offense · 2025: 34.5 · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 15.3 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.9 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 235.3 pts · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 42% returning · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Purdue

Offense · SP+ 2025: 21.9 · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 29.9 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.8 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 147.1 pts · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 54% returning · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Washington's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 13
vs Boise State · neutral site
W 38–10
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
vs Oregon
L 14–26
41%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 50 recorded plays
at UCLA
W 48–14
50%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Washington

Head coach: Jedd Fisch
career +4.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Ryan Walters
career +19.8 SP+ defense
Photo: Mick Walker, CC BY-SA 4.0

Purdue

Head coach: Barry Odom
career +6.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Josh Henson
career +34.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kevin Kane
career +28.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Washington leads 2–1 since 2000

2025 · Washington 49, Purdue 13
Husky Stadium
2002 · Purdue 34, Washington 24
Neutral site · Sun Bowl
2000 · Washington 34, Purdue 24
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Washington: 13 games
Purdue: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Washington's offense leads its matchup in success rate

No clear statistical strength for Purdue

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Washington has the ball

Washington offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Purdue defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Purdue has the ball

Purdue offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Washington defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Demond Williams Jr.

Jonah Coleman

Denzel Boston

Washington player production

Purdue player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Washington

Purdue

Recruiting

Washington

Purdue

Season percentile profiles

Washington

Purdue

Washington's recent games

vs Boise State · neutral site

vs Oregon

at UCLA

The coaching staff

Washington

Purdue

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Washington's offense leads its matchup in