01 · Colorado State's case
No clear statistical strength for Colorado State
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Colorado State unit ranked well below the Texas State unit it faced.
See when each team has the ballThursday, October 15
Compare these teams
Colorado State
2–3
at
Texas State
2–3
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX
Weather
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
San Marcos · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
26%
Colorado State win probability
Texas State 74%
Texas State by 9.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Texas State's answer
Texas State's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
Texas State's offense was in the 93rd percentile for per play last season. Colorado State's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
Colorado State leans on its top passer
Colorado State's leading passer threw 51% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Colorado State has the ball
- Colorado State offense
- 30th
- Texas State defense
- 45th
Show the underlying numbers
- Colorado State offensive PPA per play
- 0.1230th percentile · #93 nationally
- Texas State PPA allowed per play
- 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
- Colorado State
- 40%24th percentile · #103 nationally
- Texas State success rate allowed
- 41%56th percentile · #61 nationally
- Colorado State points per game
- 18.59th percentile · #124 nationally
- Texas State per game
- 29.030th percentile · #95 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Colorado State offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.30
- Rush success
- 37.9%
Texas State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.28
- Rush success allowed
- 38.9%
When Texas State has the ball
- Texas State offense
- 93rd
- Colorado State defense
- 10th
Show the underlying numbers
- Texas State offensive PPA per play
- 0.3193rd percentile · #9 nationally
- Colorado State PPA allowed per play
- 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
- Texas State success rate
- 46%79th percentile · #29 nationally
- Colorado State success rate allowed
- 45%12th percentile · #120 nationally
- Texas State points per game
- 36.592nd percentile · #12 nationally
- Colorado State points allowed per game
- 30.816th percentile · #113 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Texas State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.44
- Rush success
- 42.3%
Colorado State defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.31
- Rush success allowed
- 47.8%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jackson Brousseau · 51% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 47%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 94 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 7.1
- over 93 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 67%
- over 93 attempts with a result
198 of 200 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 173 short · 25 deep · 2 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Colorado State offense in 2025
Jackson Brousseau
QB · 9 games
128/201 · 64% season
- Passing yards
- 1,354
- Touchdowns
- 9
- Interceptions
- 3
Last game
Air Force · Nov 28, 2025: 28/37, 323 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Jalen Dupree
RB · 9 games
- Carries
- 102
- Rushing yards
- 508
- Touchdowns
- 2
Last game
UNLV · Nov 8, 2025: 13 carries, 56 yds, 0 TD
Tay Lanier
WR · 11 games
- Receptions
- 35
- Receiving yards
- 315
- Touchdowns
- 2
Last game
Air Force · Nov 28, 2025: 9 rec, 73 yds, 1 TD
Colorado State player tables
Who is producing
Colorado State player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson BrousseauQB | 9 | 128 / 201 | 1,354 | 6.7 | 9 | 3 |
| Darius CurryQB | 5 | 70 / 107 | 740 | 6.9 | 5 | 7 |
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB | 3 | 44 / 82 | 488 | 6.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryan HansenPK | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tahj BullockQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tay LanierWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Texas State player tables
Who is producing
Texas State player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB | 13 | 251 / 352 | 3,223 | 9.2 | 21 | 7 |
| Keldric LusterQB | 2 | 1 / 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Beau SparksWR | 1 | 1 / 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Holden GerinerQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Colorado State's line averages 306.2 lbs against Texas State's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 39.1 lbs a man.
Colorado State's line average is based on 17 of 23 linemen.
Texas State's front average is based on 20 of 25 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State OLColorado State OL vs Texas State DL | 306.2 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Colorado State DL | 322.7 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
- Colorado State
- Texas State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Colorado State
- Points per game
- 18.5#124 nationally · 9th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 30.8#113 nationally · 16th percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 50% of 2024 PPA returns · 47th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 41% · 108 of 108 with a class year
Texas State
- Points per game
- 36.5#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 29.0#95 nationally · 30th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 93% of 2024 PPA returns · 90th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 46% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Recruiting
Colorado State
- 2025 signing class · #106 nationally
- 22nd percentile · 140.2 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #79 nationally
- 42nd percentile · −0.35 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #92 nationally
- 32nd percentile · 583.7
Texas State
- 2025 signing class · #101 nationally
- 26th percentile · 144.4 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #107 nationally
- 21st percentile · −0.71 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #76 nationally
- 44th percentile · 612.2
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Colorado State Offense · SP+ 2025: 17.6, 11th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Offense · SP+ 2025: 36.6, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Colorado State Defense · SP+ 2025: 32.9, 23rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.6, 14th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Colorado State Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.3, 41st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.4, 56th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Colorado State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 140.2 pts, 22nd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Texas State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 144.4 pts, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Colorado State Experience · returning production 2025: 50% returning, 47th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Texas State Experience · returning production 2025: 93% returning, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Colorado State: solid line, circles · Texas State: dashed line, squares
Colorado State
- Offense · 2025
- 17.6 · 11th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 32.9 · 23rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −0.3 · 41st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 140.2 pts · 22nd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 50% returning · 47th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Texas State
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 36.6 · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 34.6 · 14th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 0.4 · 56th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 144.4 pts · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 93% returning · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Colorado State's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 28 · 47 recorded plays
vs Air Force
L 21–42
49%
Success rate
0.49
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 49 recorded plays
at Boise State
L 21–49
31%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 73 recorded plays
at New Mexico
L 17–20
33%
Success rate
−0.06
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Colorado State
- Head coach
Jim Mora
First season as Colorado State's head coach · career +6.2 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Pryce Tracy
no career rating on file
- Defensive coordinator
Kenny McClendon
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.9 SP+ defense
Texas State
- Head coach
G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense
Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense
Head-to-head
No meetings since 2000
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Colorado State: 12 games
- Texas State: 13 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD