Thursday, October 15

UAB

3–3

East Carolina

3–2

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL

Weather

Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Birmingham · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

34%

UAB win probability

East Carolina 66%

East Carolina by 5.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UAB's case

No clear statistical strength for UAB

In every matchup we could rate last season, the UAB unit ranked well below the East Carolina unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · East Carolina's answer

East Carolina's offense leads its matchup in scoring

East Carolina's offense was in the 83rd percentile for points per game last season. UAB's defense was in the 1st percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives UAB a 34% chance to win and predicts East Carolina by 5.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UAB has the ball

UAB offense: 56th
East Carolina defense: 87th

Show the underlying numbers

UAB offensive per play: 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
East Carolina PPA allowed per play: 0.0587th percentile · #15 nationally
UAB: 43%58th percentile · #58 nationally
East Carolina success rate allowed: 38%83rd percentile · #24 nationally
UAB points per game: 26.444th percentile · #77 nationally
East Carolina points allowed per game: 20.182nd percentile · #25 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

UAB offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.35
Rush success: 41.5%

East Carolina defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 38.1%

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina offense: 61st
UAB defense: 1st

Show the underlying numbers

East Carolina offensive PPA per play: 0.1961st percentile · #49 nationally
UAB PPA allowed per play: 0.321st percentile · #135 nationally
East Carolina success rate: 46%79th percentile · #30 nationally
UAB success rate allowed: 49%2nd percentile · #133 nationally
East Carolina points per game: 32.783rd percentile · #24 nationally
UAB points allowed per game: 38.31st percentile · #135 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

East Carolina offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 53.7%

UAB defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 45.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jalen Kitna · 77% of charted pass attempts

Throwing over the middle

Share of charted plays: 37%
Usage: charted in this direction: 119 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.3; over 119 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 119 attempts with a result

326 of 335 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 295 short · 31 deep · 9 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UAB offense in 2025

Jalen Kitna

QB · 10 games

223/337 · 66% season

Passing yards: 2,462
Touchdowns: 13
Interceptions: 11

Last game

Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 14/17, 166 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Jevon Jackson

RB · 12 games

Carries: 167
Rushing yards: 900
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 23 carries, 117 yds, 2 TD

Iverson Hooks

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 72
Receiving yards: 927
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Tulsa · Nov 29, 2025: 5 rec, 46 yds, 1 TD

UAB player tables

Who is producing

UAB player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

UAB — Passing production
Player
Jalen KitnaQB	10	223 / 337	2,462	7.3	13	11
Ryder BurtonQB	7	62 / 98	708	7.2	7	5
Nate RogersQB	2	1 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Iverson HooksWR	1	1 / 1	17	17.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

East Carolina player tables

Who is producing

East Carolina player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

East Carolina — Passing production
Player
Katin HouserQB	12	269 / 408	3,300	8.1	19	6
Chaston DittaQB	4	12 / 24	215	9.0	3	0
Mike WrightQB	3	3 / 7	13	1.9	0	0
Ryan LeavyP	1	1 / 1	17	17.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UAB's line averages 315.0 lbs against East Carolina's 263.3 lbs front — an edge of 51.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UAB OLUAB OL vs East Carolina DL	315.0 lbs	263.3 lbs
East Carolina OLEast Carolina OL vs UAB DL	294.4 lbs	282.9 lbs

UAB
East Carolina

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UAB

Points per game: 26.4#77 nationally · 44th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 38.3#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 73% of 2024 PPA returns · 76th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 106 of 106 with a class year

East Carolina

Points per game: 32.7#24 nationally · 83rd percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.1#25 nationally · 82nd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 51% of 2024 PPA returns · 48th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 124 of 124 with a class year

Recruiting

UAB

2025 signing class · #125 nationally: 8th percentile · 98.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #113 nationally: 17th percentile · −0.85 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #103 nationally: 23rd percentile · 540.9

East Carolina

2025 signing class · #77 nationally: 44th percentile · 172.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #75 nationally: 45th percentile · −0.14 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #78 nationally: 42nd percentile · 611.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UAB: solid line, circles · East Carolina: dashed line, squares

UAB

Offense · 2025: 25.5 · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 39.8 · 2nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 98.3 pts · 8th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 73% returning · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

East Carolina

Offense · SP+ 2025: 32.6 · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.0 · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.5 · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 172.8 pts · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 51% returning · 48th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UAB's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 74 recorded plays
at Tulsa
W 31–24
42%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 65 recorded plays
vs South Florida
L 18–48
38%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 72 recorded plays
vs North Texas
L 24–53
44%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UAB

Head coach: Alex Mortensen
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Todd Grantham
career +17.8 SP+ defense
Photo: Thomson200, CC0

East Carolina

Head coach: Blake Harrell
career +3.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jordan Davis
career +36.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jordon Hankins
career +28.3 SP+ defense; Roy Tesh
Co-defensive coordinator · career +28.3 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

East Carolina leads 8–3 since 2000

2013 · East Carolina 63, UAB 14
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2012 · East Carolina 42, UAB 35
Legion Field
2011 · East Carolina 28, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2010 · East Carolina 54, UAB 42
Legion Field
2009 · East Carolina 37, UAB 21
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2008 · East Carolina 17, UAB 13
Legion Field
2007 · East Carolina 41, UAB 6
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2006 · UAB 17, East Carolina 12
Legion Field
2005 · East Carolina 31, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2002 · UAB 36, East Carolina 29
Legion Field
2000 · UAB 16, East Carolina 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

UAB: 12 games
East Carolina: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for UAB

East Carolina's offense leads its matchup in scoring

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When UAB has the ball

UAB offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

East Carolina defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UAB defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing over the middle

Who's driving the offense?

Jalen Kitna

Jevon Jackson

Iverson Hooks

UAB player production

East Carolina player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UAB

East Carolina

Recruiting

UAB

East Carolina

Season percentile profiles

UAB

East Carolina

UAB's recent games

at Tulsa

vs South Florida

vs North Texas

The coaching staff

UAB

East Carolina

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources