Wednesday, October 14

Sam Houston

1–4

Western Kentucky

2–4

8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX

Weather

Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:21 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Huntsville · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

50%

Sam Houston win probability

Western Kentucky 50%

Western Kentucky by 0.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Sam Houston's case

No clear statistical strength for Sam Houston

In every matchup we could rate last season, the Sam Houston unit ranked well below the Western Kentucky unit it faced.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Western Kentucky's answer

Western Kentucky's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Western Kentucky's defense was in the 88th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Sam Houston's offense was in the 8th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Sam Houston has spread its pass attempts

Sam Houston's leading passer threw 47% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Sam Houston has the ball

Sam Houston offense: 2nd
Western Kentucky defense: 67th

Show the underlying numbers

Sam Houston offensive per play: 0.002nd percentile · #132 nationally
Western Kentucky PPA allowed per play: 0.1067th percentile · #39 nationally
Sam Houston success rate: 36%8th percentile · #125 nationally
Western Kentucky success rate allowed: 36%88th percentile · #17 nationally
Sam Houston points per game: 17.87th percentile · #127 nationally
Western Kentucky per game: 22.864th percentile · #47 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Sam Houston offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 41.5%

Western Kentucky defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 38.9%

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Western Kentucky offense: 48th
Sam Houston defense: 10th

Show the underlying numbers

Western Kentucky offensive PPA per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Sam Houston PPA allowed per play: 0.2410th percentile · #117 nationally
Western Kentucky success rate: 43%61st percentile · #53 nationally
Sam Houston success rate allowed: 48%4th percentile · #130 nationally
Western Kentucky points per game: 29.564th percentile · #49 nationally
Sam Houston points allowed per game: 37.81st percentile · #133 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Western Kentucky offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 44.7%

Sam Houston defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.22
Rush success allowed: 48.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Hunter Watson · 47% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 70 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.9; over 70 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 63%; over 70 attempts with a result

178 of 182 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 167 short · 11 deep · 4 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Sam Houston offense in 2025

Hunter Watson

QB · 7 games

104/182 · 57% season

Passing yards: 1,108
Touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Louisiana Tech · Oct 31, 2025: 14/33, 193 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Alton McCaskill

RB · 8 games

Carries: 88
Rushing yards: 371
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Florida International · Nov 29, 2025: 8 carries, 32 yds, 0 TD

Grady O'Neill

WR · 11 games

Receptions: 38
Receiving yards: 392
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Florida International · Nov 29, 2025: 8 rec, 70 yds, 1 TD

Sam Houston player tables

Who is producing

Sam Houston player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Sam Houston — Passing production
Player
Hunter WatsonQB	7	104 / 182	1,108	6.1	5	4
Landyn LockeQB	6	71 / 141	765	5.4	4	4
Mabrey MettauerQB	6	36 / 61	293	4.8	3	2
DJ BaileyQB	1	2 / 3	42	14.0	0	0
Nico OttomanelliPK	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Western Kentucky player tables

Who is producing

Western Kentucky player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Western Kentucky — Passing production
Player
Maverick McIvorQB	8	183 / 273	2,062	7.6	12	6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB	8	139 / 212	1,432	6.8	9	7
Cameron FlowersWR	4	3 / 4	44	11.0	0	0
Tucker ParksQB	1	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Marvis ParrishRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Sam Houston's line averages 307.9 lbs against Western Kentucky's 276.4 lbs front — an edge of 31.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Sam Houston OLSam Houston OL vs Western Kentucky DL	307.9 lbs	276.4 lbs
Western Kentucky OLWestern Kentucky OL vs Sam Houston DL	311.2 lbs	271.7 lbs

Sam Houston
Western Kentucky

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Sam Houston

Points per game: 17.8#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 37.8#133 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 90% of 2024 PPA returns · 89th percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 105 of 105 with a class year

Western Kentucky

Points per game: 29.5#49 nationally · 64th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 22.8#47 nationally · 64th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 33% of 2024 PPA returns · 30th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 104 of 104 with a class year

Recruiting

Sam Houston

2025 signing class · #122 nationally: 10th percentile · 108.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #121 nationally: 11th percentile · −1.03 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #123 nationally: 8th percentile · 477.4

Western Kentucky

2025 signing class · #96 nationally: 30th percentile · 152.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #114 nationally: 16th percentile · −0.86 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #100 nationally: 26th percentile · 561.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Sam Houston: solid line, circles · Western Kentucky: dashed line, squares

Sam Houston

Offense · 2025: 15.3 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 41.8 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.3 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 108.5 pts · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 90% returning · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Western Kentucky

Offense · SP+ 2025: 28.8 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.6 · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.4 · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 152.8 pts · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 33% returning · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Sam Houston's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 49 recorded plays
vs Florida International · neutral site
L 16–56
45%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 67 recorded plays
at Middle Tennessee
L 17–31
37%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 71 recorded plays
vs Delaware · neutral site
W 26–23
32%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Sam Houston

Head coach: Phil Longo
career −27.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Zack Patterson
career +15.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career +41.8 SP+ defense

Western Kentucky

Head coach: Tyson Helton
career +1.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Bodie Reeder
career +19.8 SP+ offense; Joe Bernardi
Co-offensive coordinator · career +19.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Davis Merritt
career +28.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Western Kentucky leads 3–0 since 2000

2025 · Western Kentucky 41, Sam Houston 24
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
2024 · Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
2023 · Western Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Sam Houston: 12 games
Western Kentucky: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Sam Houston

Western Kentucky's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Sam Houston has spread its pass attempts

When each team has the ball

When Sam Houston has the ball

Sam Houston offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Western Kentucky defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Western Kentucky offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Sam Houston defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Hunter Watson

Alton McCaskill

Grady O'Neill

Sam Houston player production

Western Kentucky player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky

Recruiting

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky

Season percentile profiles

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky

Sam Houston's recent games

vs Florida International · neutral site

at Middle Tennessee

vs Delaware · neutral site

The coaching staff

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Western Kentucky's defense leads its matchup in allowed