Wednesday, October 14
Compare these teams
1–4
at
Missouri State
1–4
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTPlaster Sports ComplexSpringfield, MO
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:56 PM CT · National Weather Service
Springfield · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
52%
Kennesaw State win probability
Missouri State 48%
Kennesaw State by 0.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Kennesaw State's case
Kennesaw State's offense was in the 39th percentile for per play last season. Missouri State's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Missouri State's answer
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Kennesaw State's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Kennesaw State's leading passer threw 63% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Amari Odom · 63% of charted pass attempts
218 of 223 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 184 short · 34 deep · 5 not stated
The Kennesaw State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
189/291 · 65% season
Last game
Western Michigan · Dec 19, 2025: 18/35, 209 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB · 14 games
Last game
Western Michigan · Dec 19, 2025: 9 carries, 48 yds, 0 TD
WR · 14 games
Last game
Western Michigan · Dec 19, 2025: 5 rec, 51 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari OdomQB | 12 | 189 / 291 | 2,594 | 8.9 | 19 | 8 |
| Dexter Williams IIQB | 7 | 67 / 125 | 787 | 6.3 | 6 | 3 |
| Tommy UlatowskiQB | 2 | 3 / 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian MossWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob ClarkQB | 12 | 247 / 376 | 3,244 | 8.6 | 28 | 11 |
| Deuce BaileyQB | 2 | 23 / 47 | 335 | 7.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole FeuerbacherQB | 2 | 6 / 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jmariyae RobinsonWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie BranchRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kennesaw State's line averages 305.8 lbs against Missouri State's 261.2 lbs front — an edge of 44.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State OLKennesaw State OL vs Missouri State DL | 305.8 lbs | 261.2 lbs |
| Missouri State OLMissouri State OL vs Kennesaw State DL | 303.7 lbs | 276.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Kennesaw State: solid line, circles · Missouri State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 19
L 6–41
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 70 recorded plays
W 19–15
44%
Success rate
0.11
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 68 recorded plays
W 48–42
41%
Success rate
0.48
PPA / play
Jerry Mack
career −5.4 SP+ overall
Mitch Militello
career +26.4 SP+ offense
Marc Mattioli
career +30.2 SP+ defense
Casey Woods
no career rating on file
Mark Cala
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Nick Petrino
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Jack Curtis
career +29.3 SP+ defense
L. D. Scott
career +29.3 SP+ defense
2025 · Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34
Fifth Third Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season