Tuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Florida International
3–2
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAmFirst StadiumJacksonville, AL
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Jacksonville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
51%
Jacksonville State win probability
Florida International 49%
Jacksonville State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Jacksonville State's case
Jacksonville State's offense was in the 55th percentile for points per game last season. Florida International's defense was in the 23rd percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Florida International's answer
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Jacksonville State's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Jacksonville State's leading passer threw 60% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Caden Creel · 60% of charted pass attempts
168 of 171 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 145 short · 23 deep · 3 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 12.1 over 26 attempts with a result.
The Jacksonville State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
130/211 · 62% season
Last game
Troy · Dec 16, 2025: 14/20, 173 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Kennesaw State · Dec 5, 2025: 19 carries, 78 yds, 1 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Kennesaw State · Dec 5, 2025: 1 rec, 0 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB | 12 | 130 / 211 | 1,514 | 7.2 | 9 | 4 |
| Gavin WimsattQB | 10 | 63 / 112 | 731 | 6.5 | 4 | 2 |
| Cade CunninghamQB | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade BackeP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe GloverWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justus SavageRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsQB | 10 | 164 / 263 | 1,742 | 6.6 | 9 | 6 |
| Joe PesanskyQB | 9 | 89 / 159 | 1,021 | 6.4 | 11 | 7 |
| Clayton DeesQB | 1 | 3 / 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas PayneTE | 1 | 1 / 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo StoneWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Jacksonville State's line averages 297.0 lbs against Florida International's 266.0 lbs front — an edge of 31.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State OLJacksonville State OL vs Florida International DL | 297.0 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
| Florida International OLFlorida International OL vs Jacksonville State DL | 303.4 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Jacksonville State: solid line, circles · Florida International: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 16
W 17–13
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 62 recorded plays
L 15–19
45%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 69 recorded plays
W 37–34
42%
Success rate
0.31
PPA / play
Taylor Housewright
no career rating on file
Brian Williams
career +25.3 SP+ defense
Willie Simmons
career −10.5 SP+ overall
2025 · Florida International 27, Jacksonville State 21
Pitbull Stadium
2024 · Jacksonville State 34, Florida International 31
AmFirst Stadium
2023 · Jacksonville State 41, Florida International 16
FIU Stadium
2020 · Jacksonville State 19, Florida International 10
FIU Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season