2026 Utah vs 2026 Arkansas

Hypothetical

Utah by 18.5

90% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

UtahPreseason baseline +17.0In-season results +6.8

ArkansasPreseason baseline +8.1In-season results −2.9

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Utah	2026 Arkansas
Offensive / play	0.3293rd percentile	0.0113th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	0.1718th percentile
Points per game	42.896th percentile5 games	19.314th percentile6 games
per game	13.096th percentile5 games	27.724th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Utah2026 Arkansas

Momentum

Utah↗ rising (+25 pctl over 3 seasons)

Arkansas↘ falling (−45 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Utah

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 74th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 96th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+22)

2026 Arkansas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 76th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 38th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−38)

Campus distance

1010 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Utah OL vs 2026 Arkansas DL	308.6 lbs	282.8 lbs
2026 Arkansas OL vs 2026 Utah DL	311.0 lbs	270.4 lbs

2026 Utah line yards 3.43 · 2026 Arkansas stuff rate 15.9%

2026 Arkansas line yards 2.59 · 2026 Utah stuff rate 21.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Utah leads 1–0 since 2000

Utah has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Utah 43–10 Arkansas	Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home

Coaching & program context

2026 Utah

Morgan Scalley

Kevin McGiven

career average +26.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 30th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)

Colton Swan

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Arkansas

Ryan Silverfield (First season as Arkansas's head coach)

Tim Cramsey

career average +32.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.3 plays a game, 68th percentile)

Deron Wilson (co-DC)
Ron Roberts

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.