2026 UCF vs 2026 Georgia State

Hypothetical

UCF by 4.7

63% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

UCFPreseason baseline +3.2In-season results +2.0

Georgia StateIn-season results +7.6Preseason baseline −7.1

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 UCF	2026 Georgia State
Offensive / play	0.1239th percentile	0.2477th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0070th percentile	−0.0582nd percentile
Points per game	31.759th percentile6 games	39.488th percentile5 games
per game	21.761st percentile6 games	19.074th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 UCF2026 Georgia State

Momentum

UCF→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Georgia State↗ rising (+27 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 UCF

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 58th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 59th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

2026 Georgia State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 34th percentile

Matching its talent (+6)

Campus distance

400 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 UCF OL vs 2026 Georgia State DL	295.7 lbs	282.5 lbs
2026 Georgia State OL vs 2026 UCF DL	310.3 lbs	276.0 lbs

2026 UCF line yards 2.82 · 2026 Georgia State stuff rate 24.1%

2026 Georgia State line yards 3.27 · 2026 UCF stuff rate 20.3%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · UCF leads 1–0 since 2000

UCF has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	UCF 44–30 Georgia State	FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home

Coaching & program context

2026 UCF

Scott Frost

Steve Cooper

career average +23.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: No-huddle spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 51st percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.7 plays a game, 12th percentile)

Alex Grinch

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Georgia State

Dell McGee

Hue Jackson

career average +18.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 34th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.4 plays a game, 78th percentile)

Cam Clark (co-DC)
John Haneline (co-DC)

no career track record on file

Scheme: 1st (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.