2026 The Citadel vs 2026 Texas A&M

Hypothetical

No prediction

At The CitadelNeutral FieldAt Texas A&M

We don't rate 2026 teams yet

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 The Citadel Recruiting · 2026 signing class: not on file
2026 The Citadel: not an team that season
2026 The Citadel: fewer than three dimensions, so no shape is drawn

Offensive production relative to that season’s FBS field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 The Citadel	2026 Texas A&M
Offensive / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.0420th percentile
PPA allowed / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.0070th percentile
Points per game	43.0not an FBS team that season1 game	27.542nd percentile6 games
per game	41.0not an FBS team that season1 game	20.069th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 The Citadel2026 Texas A&M

Momentum

The CitadelNot enough history entering 2026

Texas A&M↘ falling (−25 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 The Citadel

No SP+ result for 2026 yet, so there is nothing to weigh talent against.

2026 Texas A&M

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 91st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 66th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−24)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for The Citadel.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 The Citadel OL vs 2026 Texas A&M DL	—	275.7 lbs
2026 Texas A&M OL vs 2026 The Citadel DL	318.7 lbs	—

2026 The Citadel line yards — · 2026 Texas A&M stuff rate 18.6%

2026 Texas A&M line yards 3.10 · 2026 The Citadel stuff rate —

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Texas A&M leads 1–0 since 2000

Texas A&M has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2006	The Citadel 3–35 Texas A&M	Kyle Field · Texas A&M home

Coaching & program context

2026 The Citadel

HC: no staff data on file

OC: no staff data on file

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Texas A&M

Mike Elko

Holmon Wiggins

career average +36.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)

Elijah Robinson (co-DC)
Lyle Hemphill

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.