2026 Texas A&M vs 2026 Arkansas
Hypothetical
83% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Texas A&M Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.4, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.0, 31st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 283.1 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Arkansas Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 212.7 pts, 67th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas A&M Experience · returning production 2026: 73% returning, 87th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Arkansas Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 20th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Texas A&M | 2026 Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0420th percentile | 0.0113th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0070th percentile | 0.1718th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.542nd percentile6 games | 19.314th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.069th percentile6 games | 27.724th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 76th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 38th percentile
Campus distance
395 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Texas A&M OL vs 2026 Arkansas DL | 318.7 lbs | 282.8 lbs |
| 2026 Arkansas OL vs 2026 Texas A&M DL | 311.0 lbs | 275.7 lbs |
2026 Texas A&M line yards 3.10 · 2026 Arkansas stuff rate 15.9%
2026 Arkansas line yards 2.59 · 2026 Texas A&M stuff rate 18.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Texas A&M leads 14–4 since 2000
Texas A&M has won 5 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Texas A&M 34–7 Arkansas | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2025 | Texas A&M 45–42 Arkansas | Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home |
| 2024 | Texas A&M 21–17 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2023 | Texas A&M 34–22 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2022 | Texas A&M 23–21 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2021 | Texas A&M 10–20 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2020 | Texas A&M 42–31 Arkansas | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2019 | Texas A&M 31–27 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2018 | Texas A&M 24–17 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2017 | Texas A&M 50–43 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2016 | Texas A&M 45–24 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2015 | Texas A&M 28–21 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2014 | Texas A&M 35–28 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2013 | Texas A&M 45–33 Arkansas | Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home |
| 2012 | Texas A&M 58–10 Arkansas | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2011 | Texas A&M 38–42 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2010 | Texas A&M 17–24 Arkansas | Neutral site |
| 2009 | Texas A&M 19–47 Arkansas | Neutral site |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mike Elko
OC
- Holmon Wiggins
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)
DC
- Elijah Robinson (co-DC)
- Lyle Hemphill
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Ryan Silverfield (First season as Arkansas's head coach)
OC
- Tim Cramsey
career average +32.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.3 plays a game, 68th percentile)
DC
- Deron Wilson (co-DC)
- Ron Roberts
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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