2026 Tarleton State vs 2026 Bowling Green

Hypothetical

No prediction

At Tarleton StateNeutral FieldAt Bowling Green

We don't rate 2026 teams yet

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 Tarleton State: not an team that season
2026 Tarleton State: fewer than three dimensions, so no shape is drawn

Offensive production relative to that season’s FBS field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Tarleton State	2026 Bowling Green
Offensive / play	—not an FBS team that season	−0.038th percentile
PPA allowed / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	20.0not an FBS team that season1 game	15.84th percentile6 games
per game	13.0not an FBS team that season1 game	29.217th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Tarleton State2026 Bowling Green

Momentum

Tarleton StateNot enough history entering 2026

Bowling Green↘ falling (−35 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Tarleton State

No SP+ result for 2026 yet, so there is nothing to weigh talent against.

2026 Bowling Green

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 8th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−20)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for Tarleton State.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Tarleton State OL vs 2026 Bowling Green DL	—	267.9 lbs
2026 Bowling Green OL vs 2026 Tarleton State DL	306.6 lbs	—

2026 Tarleton State line yards — · 2026 Bowling Green stuff rate 17.3%

2026 Bowling Green line yards 2.60 · 2026 Tarleton State stuff rate —

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Tarleton State leads 1–0 since 2000

Tarleton State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Tarleton State 20–13 Bowling Green	Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green home

Coaching & program context

2026 Tarleton State

HC: no staff data on file

OC: no staff data on file

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Bowling Green

Eddie George

Greg Nosal

career average +23.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 34th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.3 plays a game, 4th percentile)

Joe Bowden

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.