2026 San José State vs 2026 Eastern Michigan

Hypothetical

San José State by 2.0

56% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

San José StatePreseason baseline −8.7In-season results +2.3

Eastern MichiganIn-season results −4.7Preseason baseline −3.7

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 San José State	2026 Eastern Michigan
Offensive / play	0.1035th percentile	0.0625th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0555th percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	21.018th percentile6 games	22.623rd percentile7 games
per game	23.548th percentile6 games	24.743rd percentile7 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 San José State2026 Eastern Michigan

Momentum

San José State↘ falling (−14 pctl over 3 seasons)

Eastern Michigan→ steady (+3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 San José State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 15th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 18th percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 Eastern Michigan

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 18th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−11)

Campus distance

2040 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 San José State OL vs 2026 Eastern Michigan DL	287.6 lbs	268.9 lbs
2026 Eastern Michigan OL vs 2026 San José State DL	302.8 lbs	269.6 lbs

2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Eastern Michigan stuff rate 19.9%

2026 Eastern Michigan line yards 3.01 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

San José State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	San José State 27–21 Eastern Michigan	Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home
2022bowl/playoff	San José State 27–41 Eastern Michigan	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 San José State

Ken Niumatalolo

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Eastern Michigan

Chris Creighton

Mike Piatkowski

career average +17.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 92nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.0 plays a game, 55th percentile)

Kasey Teegardin (co-DC)
Tate Omli

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.