2026 Oklahoma vs 2026 UTEP

Hypothetical

Oklahoma by 39.1

100% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

OklahomaPreseason baseline +21.6In-season results −1.6

UTEPIn-season results −9.8Preseason baseline −9.3

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Oklahoma	2026 UTEP
Offensive / play	−0.047th percentile	−0.180th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1699th percentile	0.247th percentile
Points per game	23.026th percentile5 games	15.84th percentile6 games
per game	17.680th percentile5 games	39.52nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Oklahoma2026 UTEP

Momentum

Oklahoma→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

UTEP→ steady (0 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Oklahoma

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 79th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

2026 UTEP

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 33rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 3rd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−30)

Campus distance

575 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 UTEP DL	318.6 lbs	257.2 lbs
2026 UTEP OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL	297.6 lbs	277.9 lbs

2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 UTEP stuff rate 19.7%

2026 UTEP line yards 2.53 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Oklahoma leads 6–0 since 2000

Oklahoma has won 6 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Oklahoma 51–0 UTEP	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home
2022	Oklahoma 45–13 UTEP	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home
2017	Oklahoma 56–7 UTEP	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home
2012	Oklahoma 24–7 UTEP	Sun Bowl · UTEP home
2002	Oklahoma 68–0 UTEP	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home
2000	Oklahoma 55–14 UTEP	Oklahoma home

Coaching & program context

2026 Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Ben Arbuckle

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Todd Bates

career average +19.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UTEP

Scotty Walden

Joe Pappalardo (co-OC)
Lanear Sampson

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 13th percentile of 2026 FBS; 55.3 plays a game, 0th percentile)

Kelvin Sigler (co-DC)
Kyle Beyer

career average +35.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.