2026 Ohio State vs 2026 Ball State

Hypothetical

Ohio State by 49.3

100% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Ohio StatePreseason baseline +31.8In-season results +0.1

Ball StatePreseason baseline −14.8In-season results −2.5

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Ohio State	2026 Ball State
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	0.0522nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1093rd percentile	0.321st percentile
Points per game	42.796th percentile6 games	18.39th percentile6 games
per game	13.295th percentile6 games	39.03rd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Ohio State2026 Ball State

Momentum

Ohio State→ steady (0 pctl over 3 seasons)

Ball State→ steady (−5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Ohio State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 97th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 100th percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 Ball State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 17th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 1st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−15)

Campus distance

125 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Ohio State OL vs 2026 Ball State DL	309.2 lbs	278.5 lbs
2026 Ball State OL vs 2026 Ohio State DL	296.5 lbs	280.2 lbs

2026 Ohio State line yards 3.15 · 2026 Ball State stuff rate 18.3%

2026 Ball State line yards 2.64 · 2026 Ohio State stuff rate 19.8%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Ohio State leads 1–0 since 2000

Ohio State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Ohio State 56–3 Ball State	Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Ohio State

Ryan Day

Arthur Smith
Keenan Bailey (co-OC)

career average +37.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 38th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.2 plays a game, 66th percentile)

Matt Patricia
Tim Walton (co-DC)

career average +7.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Ball State

Mike Uremovich

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 53% of its run–pass plays, 89th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.5 plays a game, 28th percentile)

Jeff Knowles

career average +32.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.