2026 North Carolina vs 2026 TCU

Hypothetical

TCU by 1.9

55% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

North CarolinaIn-season results +6.1Preseason baseline +1.2

TCUPreseason baseline +11.5In-season results −2.3

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 North Carolina	2026 TCU
Offensive / play	0.0932nd percentile	0.1343rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0166th percentile	−0.1093rd percentile
Points per game	23.428th percentile5 games	25.434th percentile5 games
per game	19.074th percentile5 games	13.493rd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 North Carolina2026 TCU

Momentum

North Carolina→ steady (−4 pctl over 3 seasons)

TCU↘ falling (−11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 North Carolina

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 79th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 60th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−19)

2026 TCU

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 77th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 71st percentile

Matching its talent (−7)

Campus distance

1065 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 North Carolina OL vs 2026 TCU DL	316.3 lbs	267.1 lbs
2026 TCU OL vs 2026 North Carolina DL	313.5 lbs	277.9 lbs

2026 North Carolina line yards 3.17 · 2026 TCU stuff rate 21.2%

2026 TCU line yards 2.92 · 2026 North Carolina stuff rate 9.3%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

North Carolina has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	North Carolina 15–10 TCU	Neutral site
2025	North Carolina 14–48 TCU	Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home

Coaching & program context

2026 North Carolina

Bill Belichick

Bobby Petrino

career average +33.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 72nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 57.2 plays a game, 2nd percentile)

Stephen Belichick
Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)

career average +23.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 TCU

Sonny Dykes

A. J. Ricker (co-OC)
Gordon Sammis

career average +34.5 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 62nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.2 plays a game, 47th percentile)

Andy Avalos

career average +21.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.