2026 Mississippi State vs 2026 Minnesota

Hypothetical

Mississippi State by 12.1

80% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Mississippi StatePreseason baseline +8.8In-season results +7.6

MinnesotaPreseason baseline +6.9In-season results −2.6

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Mississippi State	2026 Minnesota
Offensive / play	0.2883rd percentile	0.0522nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	0.0458th percentile
Points per game	39.086th percentile5 games	28.849th percentile6 games
per game	28.020th percentile5 games	21.860th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Mississippi State2026 Minnesota

Momentum

Mississippi State↗ rising (+46 pctl over 3 seasons)

Minnesota↘ falling (−24 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Mississippi State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 81st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 80th percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

2026 Minnesota

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 71st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 57th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

Campus distance

830 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 Minnesota DL	323.2 lbs	273.8 lbs
2026 Minnesota OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL	310.9 lbs	286.9 lbs

2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 Minnesota stuff rate 20.8%

2026 Minnesota line yards 2.34 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Mississippi State leads 1–0 since 2000

Mississippi State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Mississippi State 38–13 Minnesota	Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home

Coaching & program context

2026 Mississippi State

Jeff Lebby

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)

Zach Arnett

career average +19.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Minnesota

P.J. Fleck

Greg Harbaugh Jr.

career average +23.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)

Danny Collins
Nick Monroe (co-DC)

career average +19.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.