2026 Marshall vs 2026 Middle Tennessee
Hypothetical
61% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Marshall Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 34th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.5, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.5, 4th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.1 pts, 11th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 164.9 pts, 14th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Marshall Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning, 99th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 33% returning, 38th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Marshall | 2026 Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1138th percentile | 0.1035th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.312nd percentile | 0.229th percentile |
| Points per game | 22.020th percentile6 games | 20.816th percentile5 games |
| per game | 33.78th percentile6 games | 28.020th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 13th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 14th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 16th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 6th percentile
Campus distance
280 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Marshall OL vs 2026 Middle Tennessee DL | 302.2 lbs | 287.6 lbs |
| 2026 Middle Tennessee OL vs 2026 Marshall DL | 305.2 lbs | 276.4 lbs |
2026 Marshall line yards 3.17 · 2026 Middle Tennessee stuff rate 13.9%
2026 Middle Tennessee line yards 3.25 · 2026 Marshall stuff rate 15.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Marshall leads 6–5 since 2000
Marshall has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Marshall 28–26 Middle Tennessee | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2025 | Marshall 42–28 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2021 | Marshall 28–34 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2020 | Marshall 42–14 Middle Tennessee | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2019 | Marshall 13–24 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2018 | Marshall 24–34 Middle Tennessee | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2017 | Marshall 38–10 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2016 | Marshall 42–17 Middle Tennessee | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2015 | Marshall 24–27 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2014 | Marshall 49–24 Middle Tennessee | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2013 | Marshall 49–51 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Tony Gibson
OC
- Rod Smith
career average +30.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 71st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.5 plays a game, 79th percentile)
DC
- Brad Lambert
career average +28.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Derek Mason
OC
- Anthony Scelfo
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)
DC
- Brian Stewart
career average +30.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
We could not check the schedule for a game between these teams.
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