2026 Houston vs 2026 UCF
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Houston Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.6, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCF Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.1, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCF Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1, 70th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCF Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.8 pts, 73rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UCF Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.3 pts, 53rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Houston Experience · returning production 2026: 81% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 UCF Experience · returning production 2026: 25% returning, 33rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Houston | 2026 UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3697th percentile | 0.1239th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | 0.0070th percentile |
| Points per game | 40.090th percentile6 games | 31.759th percentile6 games |
| per game | 19.273rd percentile6 games | 21.761st percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 86th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 58th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 59th percentile
Campus distance
855 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Houston OL vs 2026 UCF DL | 306.2 lbs | 276.0 lbs |
| 2026 UCF OL vs 2026 Houston DL | 295.7 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
2026 Houston line yards 3.70 · 2026 UCF stuff rate 20.3%
2026 UCF line yards 2.82 · 2026 Houston stuff rate 22.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · UCF leads 8–5 since 2000
Houston has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Houston 27–17 UCF | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2025 | Houston 30–27 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2023 | Houston 13–27 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2020 | Houston 21–44 UCF | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2019 | Houston 29–44 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2016 | Houston 31–24 UCF | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2015 | Houston 59–10 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2014 | Houston 12–17 UCF | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2013 | Houston 14–19 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2010 | Houston 33–40 UCF | Robertson Stadium · Houston home |
| 2009 | Houston 32–37 UCF | FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home |
| 2006 | Houston 51–31 UCF | Robertson Stadium · Houston home |
| 2005 | Houston 29–31 UCF | UCF home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Willie Fritz
OC
- Slade Nagle
career average +29.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.2 plays a game, 84th percentile)
DC
- Austin Armstrong
career average +23.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Scott Frost
OC
- Steve Cooper
career average +23.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: No-huddle spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 51st percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.7 plays a game, 12th percentile)
DC
- Alex Grinch
career average +23.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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