2026 Georgia vs 2026 Oklahoma

Hypothetical

Georgia by 13.9

84% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

GeorgiaPreseason baseline +28.7In-season results +5.3

OklahomaPreseason baseline +21.6In-season results −1.6

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Georgia	2026 Oklahoma
Offensive / play	0.4099th percentile	−0.047th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0582nd percentile	−0.1699th percentile
Points per game	46.299th percentile6 games	23.026th percentile5 games
per game	14.093rd percentile6 games	17.680th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Georgia2026 Oklahoma

Momentum

Georgia→ steady (+3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Oklahoma→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Georgia

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 99th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 99th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

2026 Oklahoma

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 79th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

Campus distance

805 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Georgia OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL	315.5 lbs	277.9 lbs
2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 Georgia DL	318.6 lbs	297.4 lbs

2026 Georgia line yards 3.44 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%

2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 Georgia stuff rate 18.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Georgia leads 2–0 since 2000

Georgia has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Georgia 41–13 Oklahoma	Sanford Stadium · Georgia home
2017bowl/playoff	Georgia 54–48 Oklahoma	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 Georgia

Kirby Smart

Mike Bobo

career average +40.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.2 plays a game, 15th percentile)

Glenn Schumann
Travaris Robinson (co-DC)

career average +14.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Ben Arbuckle

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Todd Bates

career average +19.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.