2026 Florida State vs 2026 New Mexico State

Hypothetical

Florida State by 21.9

94% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Florida StatePreseason baseline +11.4In-season results −0.5

New Mexico StatePreseason baseline −12.6In-season results +1.5

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Florida State	2026 New Mexico State
Offensive / play	0.2271st percentile	0.0215th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1620th percentile	0.0555th percentile
Points per game	31.055th percentile6 games	23.728th percentile6 games
per game	25.340th percentile6 games	25.735th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Florida State2026 New Mexico State

Momentum

Florida State↗ rising (+23 pctl over 3 seasons)

New Mexico State→ steady (+6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Florida State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−27)

2026 New Mexico State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 12th percentile

Matching its talent (+5)

Campus distance

1325 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Florida State OL vs 2026 New Mexico State DL	318.3 lbs	264.9 lbs
2026 New Mexico State OL vs 2026 Florida State DL	304.0 lbs	269.2 lbs

2026 Florida State line yards 3.45 · 2026 New Mexico State stuff rate 21.4%

2026 New Mexico State line yards 3.06 · 2026 Florida State stuff rate 19.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Florida State leads 1–0 since 2000

Florida State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Florida State 34–17 New Mexico State	Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Florida State

Mike Norvell

Tim Harris Jr.

career average +29.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 21st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)

Tony White

career average +21.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 New Mexico State

Tony Sanchez

David Yost

career average +29.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)

Joe Morris

career average +33.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.