2026 Clemson vs 2026 Georgia Southern

Hypothetical

Clemson by 11.7

80% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ClemsonPreseason baseline +15.1In-season results −6.4

Georgia SouthernPreseason baseline −5.9In-season results +2.9

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Clemson	2026 Georgia Southern
Offensive / play	−0.047th percentile	0.1446th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0747th percentile	0.0936th percentile
Points per game	19.415th percentile5 games	24.731st percentile6 games
per game	25.834th percentile5 games	24.345th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Clemson2026 Georgia Southern

Momentum

Clemson↘ falling (−28 pctl over 3 seasons)

Georgia Southern→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Clemson

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 56th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−32)

2026 Georgia Southern

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 33rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 35th percentile

Matching its talent (+2)

Campus distance

170 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Clemson OL vs 2026 Georgia Southern DL	304.3 lbs	294.0 lbs
2026 Georgia Southern OL vs 2026 Clemson DL	293.2 lbs	273.6 lbs

2026 Clemson line yards 2.75 · 2026 Georgia Southern stuff rate 20.5%

2026 Georgia Southern line yards 2.98 · 2026 Clemson stuff rate 11.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Clemson leads 2–0 since 2000

Clemson has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Clemson 22–7 Georgia Southern	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2018	Clemson 38–7 Georgia Southern	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home

Coaching & program context

2026 Clemson

Dabo Swinney

Chad Morris
Kyle Richardson (co-OC)
Matt Luke (co-OC)

career average +31.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.0 plays a game, 47th percentile)

Nick Eason (co-DC)
Tom Allen

career average +19.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Georgia Southern

Clay Helton

Ryan Aplin

career average +24.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 59% of its run–pass plays, 98th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

Mike Mutz

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.