2026 BYU vs 2026 Arizona — Saturday Bias

Hypothetical

BYU by 2.8

58% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

BYUPreseason baseline +14.9In-season results +3.2

ArizonaPreseason baseline +12.9In-season results +2.5

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 BYU	2026 Arizona
Offensive / play	0.3088th percentile	0.2477th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0891st percentile	−0.0480th percentile
Points per game	34.666th percentile5 games	35.775th percentile6 games
per game	13.493rd percentile5 games	19.074th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 BYU2026 Arizona

Momentum

BYU→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Arizona↗ rising (+47 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 BYU

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 66th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 93rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+27)

2026 Arizona

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 60th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 86th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+26)

Campus distance

555 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 BYU OL vs 2026 Arizona DL	305.2 lbs	288.6 lbs
2026 Arizona OL vs 2026 BYU DL	314.2 lbs	271.2 lbs

2026 BYU line yards 3.59 · 2026 Arizona stuff rate 21.4%

2026 Arizona line yards 3.28 · 2026 BYU stuff rate 24.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · BYU leads 7–2 since 2000

BYU has won 6 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	BYU 28–17 Arizona	LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home
2025	BYU 33–27 Arizona	Arizona Stadium · Arizona home
2024	BYU 41–19 Arizona	LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home
2021	BYU 24–16 Arizona	Neutral site
2018	BYU 28–23 Arizona	Arizona Stadium · Arizona home
2016	BYU 18–16 Arizona	Neutral site
2008bowl/playoff	BYU 21–31 Arizona	Neutral site
2007	BYU 20–7 Arizona	LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home
2006	BYU 13–16 Arizona	Arizona Stadium · Arizona home

Coaching & program context

2026 BYU

Kalani Sitake

Aaron Roderick

career average +32.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 17th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.4 plays a game, 16th percentile)

Kelly Poppinga

career average +31.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Arizona

Brent Brennan

Seth Doege

career average +31.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

Danny Gonzales

career average +24.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.