2026 Boise State vs 2026 Memphis

Hypothetical

Boise State by 7.8

71% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Boise StatePreseason baseline +9.8In-season results +6.0

MemphisIn-season results +4.7Preseason baseline +3.3

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Boise State	2026 Memphis
Offensive / play	0.3293rd percentile	0.2883rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	0.0648th percentile
Points per game	35.072nd percentile6 games	38.584th percentile6 games
per game	22.356th percentile6 games	20.866th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Boise State2026 Memphis

Momentum

Boise State→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Memphis↘ falling (−11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Boise State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 70th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+15)

2026 Memphis

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 52nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 66th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

Campus distance

1510 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Boise State OL vs 2026 Memphis DL	297.6 lbs	275.4 lbs
2026 Memphis OL vs 2026 Boise State DL	307.5 lbs	289.7 lbs

2026 Boise State line yards 3.45 · 2026 Memphis stuff rate 14.5%

2026 Memphis line yards 3.54 · 2026 Boise State stuff rate 26.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Boise State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Boise State 38–20 Memphis	Albertsons Stadium · Boise State home
2023	Boise State 32–35 Memphis	Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home

Coaching & program context

2026 Boise State

Spencer Danielson

Nate Potter
Zak Hill (co-OC)

career average +33.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 18th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)

Erik Chinander
Terrence Brown (co-DC)

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Memphis

Charles Huff (First season as Memphis's head coach)

David Weeks (co-OC)
Kevin Decker

career average +26.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)

Lance Guidry

career average +24.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.