2026 Arizona vs 2026 Cincinnati

Hypothetical

Arizona by 11.2

79% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ArizonaPreseason baseline +12.9In-season results +2.5

CincinnatiPreseason baseline +5.3In-season results −1.2

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Arizona	2026 Cincinnati
Offensive / play	0.2477th percentile	0.2985th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0480th percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	35.775th percentile6 games	33.865th percentile5 games
per game	19.074th percentile6 games	23.253rd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Arizona2026 Cincinnati

Momentum

Arizona↗ rising (+47 pctl over 3 seasons)

Cincinnati↗ rising (+14 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Arizona

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 60th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 86th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+26)

2026 Cincinnati

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Matching its talent (+6)

Campus distance

1550 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Arizona OL vs 2026 Cincinnati DL	314.2 lbs	273.5 lbs
2026 Cincinnati OL vs 2026 Arizona DL	309.0 lbs	288.6 lbs

2026 Arizona line yards 3.28 · 2026 Cincinnati stuff rate 19.5%

2026 Cincinnati line yards 3.59 · 2026 Arizona stuff rate 21.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Arizona leads 2–0 since 2000

Arizona has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Arizona 34–7 Cincinnati	Arizona Stadium · Arizona home
2025	Arizona 30–24 Cincinnati	Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home

Coaching & program context

2026 Arizona

Brent Brennan

Seth Doege

career average +31.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

Danny Gonzales

career average +24.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Cincinnati

Scott Satterfield

Nic Cardwell (co-OC)
Pete Thomas

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 22nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 34th percentile)

Cortney Braswell (co-DC)
Nate Woody

career average +25.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.