2026 Alabama vs 2026 Mississippi State
Hypothetical
89% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Alabama Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.0, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.8 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Mississippi State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts, 84th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Alabama Experience · returning production 2026: 26% returning, 33rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Mississippi State Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Alabama | 2026 Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3395th percentile | 0.2883rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 44.299th percentile6 games | 39.086th percentile5 games |
| per game | 20.767th percentile6 games | 28.020th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 95th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 80th percentile
Campus distance
75 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Alabama OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL | 309.5 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
| 2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 Alabama DL | 323.2 lbs | 292.1 lbs |
2026 Alabama line yards 3.23 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%
2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 Alabama stuff rate 25.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Alabama leads 22–3 since 2000
Alabama has won 17 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Alabama 56–23 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2023 | Alabama 40–17 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2022 | Alabama 30–6 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2021 | Alabama 49–9 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2020 | Alabama 41–0 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2019 | Alabama 38–7 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2018 | Alabama 24–0 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2017 | Alabama 31–24 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2016 | Alabama 51–3 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2015 | Alabama 31–6 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2014 | Alabama 25–20 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2013 | Alabama 20–7 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2012 | Alabama 38–7 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2011 | Alabama 24–7 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2010 | Alabama 30–10 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2009 | Alabama 31–3 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2008 | Alabama 32–7 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2007 | Alabama 12–17 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2006 | Alabama 16–24 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2005 | Alabama 17–0 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2004 | Alabama 30–14 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2003 | Alabama 38–0 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2002 | Alabama 28–14 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2001 | Alabama 24–17 Mississippi State | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2000 | Alabama 7–29 Mississippi State | Mississippi State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kalen DeBoer
OC
- Ryan Grubb
career average +34.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and Gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 33rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 33rd percentile)
DC
- Kane Wommack
- Maurice Linguist (co-DC)
career average +21.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5, Swarm (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jeff Lebby
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Zach Arnett
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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